Movie Writing Software

Sophocles -- cheap and easy.
Final Draft -- industry standard bloatware.
Movie Magic Screenwriter -- fan favorite.
Celtx -- independent new kid on the block.
Scrivener -- critic's favorite.
Screenforge / MS Word macros -- poor man's choice.
Scriptware -- member of the pack.

Source: Metafilter

And here it is: Goldman, like cream, rises to the top

Goldman Sachs Rakes in Profit in Credit Crisis
While other firms tumble and fall, Goldman rises with profits from their hedges against toxic mortgage backed securities.

Meanwhile,

Fed fund futures show traders see a 90 percent chance the central bank will reduce its target a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent at its Dec. 11 meeting, 67 percent odds of another 25-basis-point cut in January, and a 43 percent likelihood the rate falls to 3.75 percent in March. Policy makers already lowered the target from 5.25 percent in August.

So, unless Bernanke feels like bucking the trend, expect to see further rate cuts, no matter what the other Fed governors say.

Be sure that your recycling really does help the environment

American Consumers Unwittingly Fuel Toxic Global Trade in Electronic Waste
You may think you're doing a good deed when you bring your old computer and electronics to an Earth Day drop off point, but if you don't check out the organization you are giving it to, you may just be adding more waste. Some companies ship the old equipment to other countries, where they are torn apart or burnt to get at the precious metals inside.

"It is being recycled, but it's being recycled in the most horrific way you can imagine," said Jim Puckett of the Basel Action Network, the Seattle-based environmental group that tipped off Hong Kong authorities. "We're preserving our own environment, but contaminating the rest of the world."

Many activists believe the answer lies in requiring electronics makers to take back and recycle their own products. Such laws would encourage manufacturers to make products that are easier to recycle and contain fewer dangerous chemicals, they say.

Fortunately, Apple, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and Sony take back their own products at no charge. It's not very easy to find out how, though. But here's the link to the Dell product recycling program.

Jim sounds like a character, here's what he said about the companies that aren't considering the environment in their recycling efforts: "Reuse is the new excuse. It's the new passport to export."

Simple, but not easy

A billionaires' guide to investing.

Hedge funds normally charge fees of 1.5 to 2 per cent of the asset value plus 20 per cent of the return. Their own fees make it hard for them to deliver the goods.

Mr Oldfield quotes the decline of the first hedge fund, A. W. Jones. In December 1968 it had $200 million under management: in September, 1970, that had fallen to $31 million. Later George Soros was to rebuild the reputation of hedge funds but there remain questions about whether they can find the exceptional talent they need and whether clients will pay their fees.

Don't believe the hype

OPEC Interested in Non-Dollar Currency
Do you believe the behind the scenes leaked news that OPEC members want to support the dollar, or the posturing by Iran's Ahmadinejad and Venezuela's Chavez, who have blatant political motives for creating a new world standard for pricing oil? I'll go with door number 1. Nevertheless, oil will price over $100 this week.

[Added 11/19/2007] Note that this was only the third time that a full OPEC meeting has occurred with all members and states since the committee was formed in 1960. What does that say?

Saudis don't want the US dollar to collapse

Saudi Arabia Won't Include U.S. Dollar in OPEC Talks
Good thing it was accidentally broadcast to journalists.

86% chance fed will cut rates in Dec: take the pain now or later?

Fed's Kroszner Says `Rough Patch' Won't Warrant Cuts
This is exactly what I was expecting in September, but instead of holding steady, the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. So now they are saying they want the economy to weather the rough waters of the coming months, and probably all of 2008. The 5-headed monster Fed is testing the waters by letting the Fed governors speak freely. First Poole says that only a calamity would force a change in Fed policy, then the 50 bps cut, then Miskin's the man to watch as his guidance has more closely followed what the Fed did, now Kroszner pops his head above water.

First the recession is imminent. Then there's a 30% chance. Now no one is sure.
One thing may be sure: earnings next year doesn't look too good. However, I'm investing in ROW stocks. That's stocks that sell to the Rest Of the World more than the US.

Hedge fund collapse? Why not banks and brokerages instead? Why not cities and towns?

Florida Holds $2.2 Billion of Debt Cut to Junk Status
This article goes over the how mortgage-backed securities are threatening some cities and towns that invested in them. But buried at the end is a little history on the collapse of banks and brokerages. Not exactly the hedge funds I was looking for, but tragic enough:

Potential losses by states are part of the subprime meltdown that shook up Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's biggest brokerage, in October. The firm reported a $2.24 billion third- quarter loss and an $8.4 billion write-down, leading to the firing of CEO Stan O'Neal.

Executives Step Down

The next week, subprime losses reported by Citigroup Inc., which at the time was the largest U.S. bank by market value, led to the departure of CEO Charles Prince.

In June, two bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds holding subprime debt reported losses of $1.5 billion. Bear Stearns fired Warren Spector, the firm's co-president for fixed income and asset management and the bank's stock lost 30 percent of its value in the following two months.

Michael Tsarion selling conspiracy

Michael Tsarion speaks on 2012 - The Future of Mankind at the Granada Forum in LA on Aug 3, 2006. This video is 2 hr 24 min 48 sec. There is a link to www.originsandoracles.com.

He mentions the conspiratorial movement/alternative history. While watching, I began to develop some rules about how to sell a conspiracy theory.

• Quote from greats to make your points.
• "Henry Ford said 'people deserve the government they get.'"
• "Einstein said that when the bees go, the humans have 2 years left." (Ian Crossland)
• MC Escher in Powerpoint slides.
• Break down words and make them fit your agenda.
• government = from the latin - to control minds
• sanity from the same root as sanitize
• Use other conspiratorial works as sources, even if they are fictional:
• They Live -- a conspiratorial sci-fi movie.
• Use other conspiratorial theories to bolster your own.

He tells a good story, though.

Timewave Zero

I've been exposed to Terrence McKenna's ideas of the novelty theory of time-- time goes through peaks and troughs that correspond to novel ideas and traditional ideas in history-- and found myself looking through his ideas once again, inspired by a youtube video about a talk he gave on "The World and it's double".

He talks about history and novelty here:

I did a Google search for terrence mckenna timewave zero and came up with this site, which says that the singularity will be "a suprahistorical order in which our ordinary conceptions of our world will be radically transformed." This caught my eye, but what I really want to know is what is going to happen after this event. What is the conception of the world that we will inherit?
Perhaps it will be a world that the ancients understood; that inspired the Mayans to create their long count calender; that got the pyramids built; in which religions and great ideas were caught, molded, and expressed. Perhaps it is the time the tower of Babel was built, and God struck it down, made men speak in tongues, and made us forget time and history. I see the end of history as just another cycle, to be replaced again at some point with what we have now-- novelty and tradition. Maybe it will last 1000 years; the 1000 years of peace that the Bible mentions as a precursor to Christ's return.
Terrence McKenna died in 2000 of brain cancer.

Bernanke: Fed will respond "as needed"

Bloomberg report.

October Employment Numbers

Weird can't tell which is correct. I thought this quote was from an article written today, however, I found it again after clicking away from it and it says it was written at 5:55pm on November 1. That would be right as the crude oil price numbers sound correct:

With the market growing pessimistic about the economy, the Labor Department's report on October jobs creation, scheduled to be released Friday morning, will be taking on even more importance than it usually has. The data is expected to show unemployment remained steady in October, with payroll growth of 85,000 new jobs, compared with 110,000 in September.

But the title of the article is the Dow drops 360. And the Dow dropped 360 today:
Stocks Plunge With Dollar; Dow Down 360
Are we going through some sort of time warp?
Ok, on second glance, the Nov 1st article says:

The Dow fell 362.14, or 2.60 percent, to 13,567.87.

And today's article says:

The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 360 points -- just about matching its plunge of last Thursday.

That makes more sense. It goes on to say:

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 360.92, or 2.64 percent, to 13,300.02.

It's a slow bleed...

Fed speaks II

Lacker says the mortgage crisis isn't over yet. I say just wait until next year's rate cuts. Dissention in the ranks by non-voting members. If it gets much worse you may see more regulation in the mortgage market.
Warsh is waiting for more information.
Poole says we may need more cuts, which worries me, because he was against this before the first one.
Instead of Greenspan, now we have a five-headed monster to deal with when attempting to decode future moves.

Miskin Speaks; Fed outook is as volatile as the markets

Miskin spoke to the House Small Business Committee. Bloomberg report. Reuters. Looks like he's taking back what he said about taking back the Halloween rate cut. "Wait and see" seems to be the tone of this cautious Fed. Later today we'll hear from Warsh, Lockhart, and Poole, then Bernanke tomorrow.

98% bet that Fed will lower fed funds rate 25bps tomorrow

Quotes From Fed Officials on Economy

Hopefully they will surprise again with a 50 bps cut. The bursting of the housing and credit bubbles, compounded with China's "irrational exuberance," according to Greenspan, will hopefully inspire the Fed to be more aggressive, but the comments above suggest otherwise. If there is no cut, the market will fall. The 25 bps cut is already priced in. People may take profits if this happens. If it's a 50 bps cut, the market will rally.

$20 billion down the drain. just wait for the blowback.

Merrill, Citi, Bear Stearns, and JPMorgan write off a massive total of $20 billion
Click the link for details-- don't mind the ads.
Another reason to raise interest rates in the coming years and stick it to the middle class.

They're all just treading water right now...

I wonder if Bernanke will wait until a democrat is in office before he starts raising rates.

Trichet, Dodge, King May Follow Bernanke in U-Turn on Policy
September 2007 Rewind: Bernanke's Emotional Rescue
Why Bernanke might need India to'Do a China'

I keep thinking of this quote:
"Double digit is something that is likely to happen for a short period of time," from Greenspan.
Greenspan sees double-digit rates

They're all just treading water right now...

I wonder if Bernanke will wait until a democrat is in office before he starts raising rates.

• Trichet, Dodge, King May Follow Bernanke in U-Turn on Policy
• September 2007 Rewind: Bernanke's Emotional Rescue
• Why Bernanke might need India to'Do a China'

checking old links. found new ones.

Checking to see if old links still work &
saw that Alex-C moved.
He thanked Bristle’s Blog from the BunKRS
for featuring him.
looks like it's half-mashup mixes, half-political blog.
Meanwhile, Alex-C has gone multiple, his two other personalities are Dubstep Project - 'DFRNT' and
Experitronica.

1999 is back baby!

Rabbit Holes

On the net, there's always a new subculture to explore. I see them as rabbit holes, and I'm amazed to find new ones every day. Here's a list for today:

• Someone forwarded me a link for living frugally, which lead me a bunch of different places, like
• NetworthIQ, a site where you can track your networth on and share it with others.
  Through their tagging search feature, I found this guy,
  
• Buster McLeod, who
  
• wrote a book about an 89 year old city planner who didn't want his life to end without meaning.
  
• He has a morale-o-meter that you can use to track your morale over the course of time.
• Another link from the frugal site took me to a story about Japanese women who play the currency markets with their savings.
• Which was a blog site commenting on this NY Times story.
  
  

Inflation level, but food & energy up

From Bloomberg TV:
Since Feb/Mar 2007, when Bernanke said we should watch inflation, prices have gone up:
24% oil
10% gold
75% wheat
Yes, they are not in core consumer price index, but still, in march 2007, the CPI was .1. The last reading was .2.
If inflation is the main risk to the economy, and the cpi has gone up as well as oil and wheat, which are not in the cpi, and oil affects many parts of the economy, how can we not be experiencing inflation?

Well, the fed cut rates

Fed Cuts Key Interest Rates by a Half Point - Sept 18, 2007 - NY Times.
Federal Reserve Press Release September 18,2007

Fed's surprise move: Flip the discount and raise the fed funds rate?

I'm researching the viability of the Fed flipping rates & raising the fed funds rate today. Why would they do this? To prevent against inflation while still offering liquidity to banks. Here's the Google Search.
And some results:
Fed holds rates steady - June 28, 2000 - CNN Money
Fed cuts discount rate, stands ready to do more - The mess that greenspan made
Fed Funds Target vs. Effective Funds Rate - Calculated Risk
The T-Bill Message for Bush & Bernanke - August 16, 2007 - Kudlow's Money Politic$
Some Wall Street Journal definitions:
How does the fed keep rates near its target? A primer - August 16, 2007 - WSJ
Explaining the Discount Window - August 17, 2007 - WSJ
And here's a result which may give a clue about what happens when the discount window is lower than the fed funds rate:
Economists React: 'Lifting the Wizard's Curtain' - August 17, 2007 - WSJ

"Prior to 2003, when the discount rate was lower than the funds rate, cutting the discount rate was the most powerful tool in the monetary policy toolbelt. Indeed, prior to 1994, when the Fed began announcing changes in the funds rate target, a discount rate move was the ONLY move that was explicitly announced. Many market participants will think of the discount rate cut in those terms, which is not the correct way to consider it. Instead, this should be thought of as another (indeed, probably the last) intermediate step short of an ease. –Stephen Stanley, RBS Greenwich Capital"

Bernanke's the new sheriff in town-- when he lowered the discount rate after Bill Poole said only a catastrophe would cause the Fed to change monetary policy earlier than their September meeting-- his actions showed his new tactics. Where Greenspan would have lowered the fed funds rate-- the famous Greenspan put, Bernanke may be reverting to the past, when the discount rate was more important.
Will Bernanke revert to considering the discount rate the most important rate? This is a new boss-- the Greenspan era is over-- no more Greenspan put, the book is out and he's coasting. Bernanke is an academic. He may not be in it for the short term like Greenspan. He may not want to be popular and enjoy the public eye. He's less impressed with his public image than his predecessor. It's not all about ego, but-- Greenspan enjoyed the limelight. He liked speaking in riddles and being the most powerful man on the planet. He didn't follow the advice of the group-- sometimes he lowered rates even if the others on the board didn't want to. He followed the Federal Express stock price to feel the pulse of the economy. He made instinctual decisions and most of the time he was right. Bernanke is an academic-- he listens to the group, he uses models. Most likely, he will not follow the historical pattern and make his mark today.
So, with 25 minutes to go-- will Bernanke raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 5.5% and lower the discount rate 50 points to 5.25%?

The future

Remember when there was only one internet?
Now everyone knows what everyone else is doing all the time.
Now that there is a way that computers can automatically e-mail you about where people are, where they are going, and when they have gotten there.
For example, if you arrange to meet someone at a certain time-- for example, you e-mail them "hey, let's meet at 6 for dinner at Y bar," your computer will automatically put that into a central calendar that you can choose for anyone to access and it can link to a map so all your friends know where you are and when. It just makes communication richer so you don't have to talk about logistical things-- they are built into the system, like concrete in the roads.

So now you have a phone that goes everywhere with you and can double as a half-decent camera and radio/music machine. And it also has your calendar and access to the internet, and you have a social networking site that gets updated with the latest information about you, where all of your friends, family, co-workers, and acquaintences are on, and you can set it up so that the GPS in your phone updates your location live on the web, and record a video that instantly goes live if you want. And you can communicate with everyone at once if you want. So basically, everyone is a star to someone, or some group of people. You can produce a television show while you are walking down the street, and interview other people who are walking down it with you, and all the technology and know-how to do this is built right into your phone, the thing you carry all around with you anyway.

The Fed Will Not Lower Rates

The Economic Outlook--speech by Jeffrey Lacker of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond to the Charlotte Risk Management Association in Charlotte, North Carolina on Aug. 21, 2007 at 12:30pm.
Basically, he said don't look for the fed to cut the federal funds rate soon.
However, that may be just as believable as William Poole's comments that only a "calamity" would justify an interest rate cut, the day before the Fed cut the discount rate.

Countrywide Up on Rumor, Down on News?

Thrifts Hit by Housing Market Problems
The good news obscured by the headline:

Mortgage defaults are slamming the savings and loan industry, although thrifts should be able to weather the housing market downturn, federal regulators said Tuesday.

CFC is a thrift.
US regulator says watching Countrywide very closely

The Office of Thrift Supervision is very closely monitoring events at Countrywide Financial Corp and has had a consistent onsite examination presence at the California company since it converted to a thrift charter in March 2007, an OTS spokesman said on Monday.

Stocks to Watch: Capital One, Countrywide, KKR, Target, Viacom

Countrywide Financial's (CFC) stock fell 7.6% despite the company's attempts to reassure depositors that their funds were safe at the company's Countrywide Bank savings bank unit

My opinion? Countrywide will fall when Buffet says he's not buying.

Their timing couldn't be any better...

China Prepares to Dump US Dollars

CFC the next sacrificial lamb?

First Wells Fargo:
Wells Fargo to close non-prime mortgage unit

Now Capital One:
Capital One to Close Mortgage Unit

And
Countrywide announcing layoffs

As someone on Yahoo finance said, CFC now in Baghdad Bob mode

Flagged for future reference

JIM,
I'll say this 1 more time....the HYBRID system
is going to fail us and we will have a giant
crash...might not be this year or next but it
will happen. That and the new no downtick rule
is crazy.
I'm a trader and I see this happen daily in a
ton of different stocks and it will happen in
the overall market. What say you? They need to
do something about this and they need to, at a
minimum, have a backup plan that they don't tell
anyone else about....because they don't want to
look like clowns. We need specialists or a
different system....I can move CAT a point with
no volume if I wanted to. This is the only
thing scaring me about this selloff!!!!!!!
Asked by jnorine

I dont disagree with any of this. The difference is
that i am the only one in the nation willing to go on
national t.v. and say it and then no one backed me up.
Answered by Jim Cramer

Update on the NYSE's hybrid system

Fed cuts rates and saves the world

Here's a good write up of what just happened:

Five Things You Need to Know: What the Discount Rate Cut Really Means

LTCM II

John Lonski from Moody's Investors Service compares current situation to collapse of LTCM fund today on Bloomberg's final word.

The Sky Keeps Falling

More news stories as the market enters into an official correction (10% down).
Maybe a good time to buy Apple stock.

Why Mortgages Blew Up
UPDATE 1-Fitch revises further its CDO ratings methodology
FOCUS: Valuations In Spotlight As Funds Halt Redemptions
Business comment: Fundamentally, it's time to step back from the maelstrom
Asia property retains allure in stormy market
Banks refuse to mark CDOs to the market
`India to benefit as growth continues`
ETFs Tumble On Investor Worries
Sharp sell-offs on Wall Street

Richard Hoey, chief economist of Bank of New York - Mellon was on Bloomberg TV open exchange just now. He mentioned that the dollar is rising because hedge funds had been bearish on the dollar, and now have to unwind those leveraged trades to get more cash. The commentator mentioned that they just had Dr. Doom on (see below), who said that the only safe place to be right now is cash, and he also sees the dollar going up as he doesn't see how it could fall any further. Hoey also said that the dollar is the fulcrum [my word] of the global economy. In other words, it still acts as the central currency for trade, no matter how high or low it goes. The commentator also mentioned the unwinding of the Yen carry trade as an example of hedge fund liquidation. Time to look into ETFs that track the dollar.

Forbes article "ETFs Tumble On Investor Worries" recommends bying XLF, a financial sector index ETF that includes C, JPM, GS, MER. Trading at 10.7 times earnings. Maybe the bottom has been reached.

Chicken Little Cries Again

On why good assets get knocked down when markets go bad:
"There's no skill in buying mortgages...The skill was in the credit officer who could get the cheap line of credit," Frank Husic, CIO Husic Capital Management.

Managers sell good assets to raise cash. Tech may get hit by subprime fallout.

Other Articles:
Credit contagion
EDITORIAL - Global financial turbulence; local impact possible
Killer Derivatives, Zombie CDOs and Basel Too?!
Basis Fund Down 80%
'After the Greed, Fear Reigns'
Countrywide Falls, Merrill Cites Bankruptcy Prospect (WOW!)
Mitt Romney Hit by Mortgage Meltdown
Investment fund in Chicago hit by wave of withdrawals

I've been getting back into Alan Moore lately. Just bought all the Swamp Thing and Promethea graphic novels for about $10 a book (check eBay and Amazon Used books for great deals).

A bunch of mp3 Alan Moore interviews:
The Alan Moore Chain Reaction thingie
right-click this link to download mp3

Alan Moore on fanboy radio
right-click this link to download mp3

The Bomb Shelter
right-click this link to download mp3

I'm ready for my podcast interview with alan more in 3 parts.

I don't know how I missed it!
The What!? Superseven mashup album, featuring mashups by aggro1, dj zebra, go home productions, and dj bc. Just listening now-- great stuff!
Thanks to dj bc for the link, who's "Ain't No Misty Mountain" is track #11.

Panic avoided. We live to trade another day.
Stocks End Amazing Day Little Changed

More stock investment/trading ideas as quotes from some news stories.
Jun. 13

Finally, for the more aggressive among you, consider inverse bond funds like
Rydex Inverse Government Long Bond Fund
(RYJUX : 19.65, -0.16, -0.8% ) or
ProFunds Rising Rates Opportunity ProFund
(RRPIX : 20.26, -0.17, - 0.8% ).
These funds trade inversely to bond prices -- meaning they RISE in value when bond prices FALL. You can also target vulnerable sectors of the market. For instance, you could sell short the
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
(XHB : 25.50, -1.53, -5.7% ).
Or, you could buy the
UltraShort Real Estate ProShares
(SRS : 112.00, +6.82, +6.5%).
The leveraged ETF is designed to rise 2% for every 1% decline in the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index, a benchmark index of commercial REITs.

Stocks mentioned:
RYJUX RRPIX XHB SRS

Mar. 5

Larger capitalization exchange traded funds like the Diamonds Trust (amex: DIA - news - people ) and the Rydex Russell Top 50 (amex: XLG - news - people ) sustained the least damage, while the small cap iShares Russell 2000 Index (amex: IWM - news - people ) was down 2.12%.

The iShares MSCI Malaysia Index (amex: EWM - news - people ) was down 6.64%, iShares MSCI Australia Index (amex: EWA - news - people ) lost 5.81%, PowerShares Golden Dragon Halter USX China (amex: PGJ - news - people ) lost 4.3% and the iShares MSCI South Korea Index (amex: EWY - news - people ) was down 1.45%.

The big winners were of course the inverse ETFs that move opposite the markets, with the ProShares Ultrashort Real Estate ETF (amex: SRS - news - people ) up 7.39% for the day. SRS seeks daily moves that are 200% in the opposite direction of the underlying index. U.S. real estate tracking ETFs were hit very hard again.

At some point, prices will settle at levels sure to bring out the bargain hunters. Bargain hunters may want to focus on Thailand trading at 9.5 times earnings, Brazil at 11.9 times, South Korea at 10.9 times, Germany at 13 times, Brazil at 11.8 times and the Netherlands at 11.8 times earnings.

Stocks mentioned:
dia xlg iwm ewm ewa pgj ewy srs

NOTE: The inverse ultrashorts may not truly return 200% of the markets they cover. I've read that some of them-- the ultrashort S&P play offered by ProShares, did not offer a true 200% upside on a down day, but without a source I can't confirm that. If I find it I'll add it here. However, thestreet.com answers has a positive post about the SRS, at least in the short term, and it has gone up lately due to the poor performance in the housing sector. My one concern about these plays is that shares in ProShares ETFs are not real shares (read their prospectus), and they don't have a long enough track record for me to believe that they would make good on their promises if the company became insolvent for some reason or other. In my opinion, you can play them, but not with money you can't afford to lose.

Trading idea:
Buffett buying USG. Buy Jan 09 45 Call .vxeai 5.60

Yahoo:

Re: Under $39, it was abargain of lifetime
8-Aug-07 08:39 pm
If you folks did not buy under $39, you missed the boat big time. I was lucky , just lucky, to load the trucks with Sep 37.5 calls and Jan 08 $30 calls. Sold all 37.5 calls today. Holding $30 calls. When Jan 08 comes near, plan to exercise those calls and be a proud owner of USG. USG will stabalise. Buy more folks. I plan to do. Jerry

From thestreet.com answers and stockpickr.
Cramer favorites:
mo kft k cl pep aapl rimm crox

EMC ideas:

You have been big on EMC. What do you think
about the Aug 18.0 call at $0.55 at close today
(it dropped 30c today)

- Just out of the money
- Expiry next week
- VMWare next week too

Good calls. FWIW, I picked up Sept 16s and 18s when the
dow was down 300 as a complement to my long stock
position.

Aug expirations are cheaper and could work well for
next week's IPO, I just prefer having a little more
time in case of delays or whatever.

Good luck!

Pacific Capital Small Cap held stocks:
dsw hw brcd mstr www

Suck My Nasdaq comment ideas:
lrw (short at 22.2 stop at 23, bracket order trailing cover stop .40, trigger cover 21.1)
emc
mstr (take gains, buy back cheaper mon & ride to 85)
llnw (treasuries violations)
irti (rebound)

The Morning News

Financials hit hard on word of hedge-fund selling
U.S. Stocks Head for Sharply Lower Open
Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ)
Very Scary Things
NY Fed didn't intervene in forex market in 2nd qtr
Wall Street stunned by funds freeze
News & Views: Wall Street stunned by funds freeze
Hedge Funds Pluck Money From Air in $19 Billion Weather Gamble
Bernanke's Bind: No Easy Answers
Countrywide, Accredited Home Lenders, RadNet in focus
U.S. Stocks Head for Sharply Lower Open
Bloomberg news
Supply fears set wheat futures afire
DJ US Wheat Outlook: 6-8c Up On Tech Momentum, Tight Supplies
Markets to Watch 08/10/2007

No one likes a chicken little, even when the sky really is falling

So BNP Paribas SA, a French bank (actually, one of the largest banks in France), froze three funds that invested heavily in U.S. subprime CDOs (I'm guessing here. They said they could not value the subprime market). For those who don't know what they are, a CDO is a collateralized debt obligation consisting of a bundle of debts, in this case, subprime mortgages, which are themselves bundles of individual mortgages. What's causing the panic is that these bundles of bundles are essentially worthless because in the go-go days of 2005-2007, when people in California, Las Vegas, and Florida were lining up at realtors to buy a home with no money down in the hopes of flipping it for a substantial profit a week later, no one remembered that what goes up must come down, and that when it did come down, those holding the bags of hot potatoes would have to pay.

This, combined with the unwinding of the Yen carry-trade (a system of making money by borrowing funds from a country with a low interest rate and putting the money in higher interest vehicles in another) is causing a tightening of liquidity in the markets. Liquidity is a measure of how easy it is to buy and sell stocks for a profit, and convert it to cash. Liquidity is tightened when you can't sell for as much of a profit, because no one wants to sell for a loss, so you have to hold and wait for your positions to go up again, only, this takes time, and time is the enemy of liquidity.

So this economic environment is limiting the profits and sustainability of hedge funds and hedge fund profits. The Dow went down over 350 (almost 3%) today and the Nikkei is already down over 350 (2%).

Cramer had a fit, the Fed added a sentence to their statement that said they recognised that there is a credit problem, but they wouldn't change the rates, but followed the European Central Bank by adding money to the market. The Bank of Japan, not to be left out, just joined in.

Also, if that weren't the worst of it, Countrywide Financial (CFC), which was touted as being able to survive this row, has announced that the mortgage situation is "unprecedented." They were down 12% in the aftermarket. Lord only knows what will happen tomorrow.

Sources:
Dow Sinks 387 on Renewed Credit Concerns
Countrywide: Mortgage market 'unprecedented'
Japanese Stocks Drop on Concern Subprime Losses Will Spread
BNP Paribas Freezes Funds as Loan Losses Roil Markets (Update5)
Bank of Japan Adds Biggest Amount of Funds Since June (Update1)

Thanks to Alphatrends.blogspot.com for their Technical Analysis.



Stock market video technical analysis for Wednesday August 8, 2007 including; Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (NASDAQ:QQQQ), S&P 500 Index (AMEX:SPY), Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:IWM), Trend analysis for daytraders and swingtraders of stocks and options. Trading stocks involves risk; this information should not be viewed as trading recommendations.

I read somewhere that one of the hallmarks of the new economy is more bubbles. First we had the tech bubble, then the housing bubble, and now the credit bubble. Tony Dye, the former "Dr. Doom" (so called because he predicted the demise of the tech bubble, years before it happened), said:

"It is inevitable there will be more bubbles," says dot.com crash prophet Tony Dye.

"There is this whole industry that relies on a bull market. So they are going to try to create one."

"And politicians love it because everybody feels good and tax takings go up."

"Let's face it. Nobody is going to get a prize for preventing the bubble that would have happened in 2025."

Mr Dye earned his Dr Doom tag in the late 1990s, when he began predicting the market collapse, some four years before it arrived. He wiped about [pound]8.5bn off the funds he managed by sticking with his value-based management style, quitting the firm in March 2000, just two weeks before the bear market began. Within weeks, his funds rocketed from the bottom to the top of the performance league tables.

The erosion in the Contra Fund's value in recent months follows a repositioning of its portfolio in line with Mr Dye's belief that markets are once again heading for a downturn. However, equities have continued to perform very strongly since the correction last summer.

More:

>Dr. Doom Sees More Market Pain.

Here are some more reports, from The Guild Investment Management forum.:

• WHY THERE WILL BE MORE BUBBLES LIKE THE REAL ESTATE AND INTERNET BUBBLES AND HOW WE PLAN TO PROFIT FROM THEM. Posted Jan 23, 2006.
  
• IT’S ALL STILL HAPPENING: GOLD, US STOCKS, GLOBAL STOCKS, COMMODITIES AND A FEW CURRENCIES ARE SEEING INFLOWS. REAL ESTATE IS SEEING OUTFLOWS. Posted Dec 12, 2005.
  

Stock Notes
Week of 8/6-8/10/2007

The headline risk remains, he says, noting that more negative news or rumors like this week's from lenders Accredited Home Lenders (LEND - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), American Home Mortgage (AHM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Countrywide Financial (CFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) or Beazer Homes (BZH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) could easily set off another round of woe.

Time to Short BSC, GS, JPM, MER, UBS, WM, BAC

Time to short the financials-- they've been riding high for too long on too much liquidity. Unfortunately, it's going to go down before it goes up. We are in a similar situation to when Bush the first was campaigning for office-- except the time frame has been lengthened. Instead of being a lame duck president for one year, Bush the second will be a lame duck for two, and even though the President doesn't determine the economy, the market doesn't know that. High volatility and frightening drops will keep coming until long into 2009, when a democratic win may bring back the market highs of the late 90s.

Hedge Funds Behind Late-Day Stock Moves

Will Citadel Fall?

micaiah2004 on the Beazer Homes (BZH) message board says that Citadel puts alot of liquidity into the market, but warns that it could fall as well. Nicholas Yulico writes in The Street that Citadel upped it's stake in BZH to 5.7%.

Sowood fund Assets Gobbled Up by Citadel

The assets of the Sowood fund, which recently lost over $3 billion
as reported in Reuters, was gobbled up by Citadel, which also grabbed 
Amaranth's assets. With hedge funds, it is a matter of time and liquidity before
they make or lose money. The article goes on to say that Ken Griffin,
the manager, can wait out the bad calls and ultimately make money
on the positions. If hedge fund managers weren't so impatient, they
would eventually make money on all their positions as long-term
investors. But not everyone is as patient as Warren Buffet.

Amaranth Accused of Manipulating Gas Prices

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed in US Court for the Southern District of New York a civil enforcement action against Amaranth, accusing the former hedge fund of manipulating natural gas prices. The Amaranth fund bought futures contracts for natural gas in 2006, betting that prices would rise in the cold winter months. 
But the winter was not cold, prices fell, and the fund lost over $6 billion.
Also reported on Bloomberg.com.

Jimmi Jammes

Jimmi James moved last year to MySpace. He's the artist who gave us I am your father, a Darth Vader mashup, and Sgt. Pepper's Paradise, combining Gun's & Roses' Paradise City with Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band. Check out his stuff. My current favorite is Just a Umbrella.

Bush Admin Cuddles Press

with plush new seats and wireless access in the reopened Washington press room. But will the newly opened press room lead to more open answers and transparency in the Bush Administration in it's waning lame duck year plus? We will see. Helen Thomas asks the same question. One interesting factoid from the article:

"She also says there are actually fewer desks for reporters than before with so much more room devoted to equipment and storage."

More coverage:

• PR Newswire has more details about the renovation.
  
• US News & World Report coverage.
  
• Bush dedication, courtesy of the Guardian Unlimited.
  
• Houstin Chronicle.
  
• LA Times.
  

Yes, I took these from the top results from a Google News search, and no, I haven't read them all yet.

White House Press Briefing.

I'd like to include an embedded video of the briefing, but since they don't make it easy, click on the Video link to the right of the transcript.

Third Opinion on Dvorak's Second Opinion (Update 2)

John Dvorak argues that Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone in his latest column. He says Apple products work best in emerging or declining markets. For example, the MP3 player:

Then there was the online music distribution business, again unfocused and out-of-control with little marketing and a lot of incompatible technologies. So Apple comes in with a reasonable solution, links it to the heavily promoted iPod and bingo. A winner.

He's got it in reverse. Apple came out with iTunes first, then the iPod. The iPod was Apple's portable solution to the music distribution problem that they solved years before with their Rip-Mix-Burn iTunes software. And I'm not sure the business would be languishing without Apple-- it just wouldn't be as sexy. Sony, Sandisk, and Microsoft have music players, as do a number of phones, and the party's just starting-- Verizon is heavily promoting it's music-playing cellphones, for example.

He argues that the cellphone market is in the process of consolidation, with Nokia, and of all companies, Motorola, being the two leaders. Nokia may be a leader, but it's hardly buying up the competition-- LG, Samsung, Kyocera, RIM, and Palm all have stakes in this game, and they're not going quietly (at least Palm isn't). And Motorola just crashed after announcing lower earnings due to lack of cellphone sales and management departures, and sources say there isn't much advanced R&D for future products either.

He also says the margins are small. This is completely untrue. The reason for the excitement for the iPhone is that people will pay a premium for portable technology that works. If Mr. Dvorak uses a cellphone he would know that most of them have too many features that no one knows how to use, most of which do not do what we want them to-- like tell us how many minutes we have left and what each call is costing us, or get us on the internet without limiting us to a 10x10 pixel view.

What naysayer Dvorak is missing is that the Apple iPhone is a paradigm shift in cellphone architecture-- it's no longer the hardware that will drive sales, but the software. Apple is shipping a blank screen-- what is on it 3 months from now when your average razor-flip-camera-phone becomes unhip depends on the latest software release Apple-- or another third-party vendor--pushes onto it.

Don't mistake the iPhone for just another entree on your provider's menu of products-- it's a whole new menu.

No Impact Man

The Times has an article about a guy attempting to have "no impact" on the environment for a year:
The Year Without Toilet Paper
I wrote my comments on his blog:

I have to say that this makes me angry-- self-congratulatory sustainable living in a city is much like bailing water from the titanic. I wish I could see it as a baby step towards better living, but I'm afraid things have to get much worse before they get any better. It seems like a great experiment while you can afford it, but what happens if you both lose your jobs and have to declare bankruptcy? Do you continue your experiment when you are struggling to put food on the table, or do you throw all your high and mighty ideas out the window? I'm sorry but I can't help thinking that people like you can live any way they please. Good luck in your exclusive club, New York Times articles written about you, guests marveling at how brave you are in taking this on, writing about your experience so that the other 1% can support you and think for a second about their impact on the world before they reach for another canape and change the subject.

And more comments on another blog:

It is clear to me after reading Mr. Beavan's reaction to the Times article (his "If I could change that bit..." PR move) that he is doing this to make money off the resurgence of the green movement and to sell his book and documentary. How quaint for two upper class, young professionals and their small daughter to experiment with no impact living, while not giving up their New York penthouse and privileged jobs. In the past year I have done my part to reduce my carbon emissions-- I live 15 minutes from work and ride my bike there everyday, buy from a CSA during the spring and summer months, and practice the three R's-- Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle. But I am not writing a book about myself or stand to gain economically from my living. I think Mr. Beavan's extremism and time limit on his "no impact" lifestyle is detrimental to the whole idea behind leaving no footprints. What is he going to do when the year is up? Return to his old ways? Lighten up a little? His reaction-- drastic changes to a problem that has been ongoing for longer than he has been alive (increase of greenhouse gasses)-- is overdone. Instead of swearing off toilet paper and trash for a year, he should consider the small changes he could do now-- or even the drastic change of moving to the country and starting a small farm... but then he wouldn't have a book deal, would he?

Yes, they are angry and negative, but that's how I feel when upper class people with better lives and more choices than me preach about how I can sacrifice my life to make things better for their world.

UPDATE 1-U.S. traders eye bidding war for Chicago exchange [Reuters.com]
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) put in a bid for the Chicago Board of Trade, slightly over 9% of the price offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

• Merc plans to offer futures on index of Chinese stocks--starting May 20, CME will offer trading of Chinese index futures with 24-hour access.


• CME and CBOT to merge--chicago merc and board of trade to merge.


• Volatility Can Be Good


• USFE to offer futures on various ISE indices


• UPDATE 2-CME set for round-the-clock commodity trading


• Chi-Town's Exchange Receives A Boost

chicago mercantile exchange to offer futures contracts for the weather

right now they offer contracts on the temperature in various cities, measured in degrees above or below average temperatures. these contracts are used to predict energy demand.

"Monday also marks the launch of CME's hurricane index futures, and options on futures, which will allow insurers and others to hedge risk against hurricane damage."

Synecdoche, New York

Synecdoche, New York

I'm searching for the script for Charlie Kaufman's upcoming Synecdoche, New York, about a theatre director who may be dying or may be going crazy, or both, who, among other things, is building a life-sized replica of New York in a warehouse for his latest play. I'm sure the description is much like saying Being John Malkovich is about John Malkovich playing a life-sized puppet of himself, because there are many other elements, like stories within stories and time jumps. Check the links below for all the info.

Reviewed on Ain't It Cool News
IMDB listing
BeingCharlieKaufman.com blog
CHUD.com post (stands for Cinematic Happenings Under Development, watch out for pop-ups).
Synecdoche Wikipedia entry
Jay Hernandez's Los Angeles Times review of the screenplay
BeingCharlieKaufman.com main page

From what I can tell, it has the key elements of a Kaufman film-- self-referential scenes, a lonely guy who can't quite connect with women, obsessive hobbies--