Crookers

This is now a house music blog.

There's no allmusic or wikipedia page on Crookers, but a google search turned up this informative article with video below.

March/April 2009: Things are looking up

You heard it here first-- things are going to be looking up by the end of the first quarter 2009. Sure, it's tough now, but it's official-- all of 2008 was a recession. So we've hit a bottom and there's nowhere to go but up, right? That's if the credit card market doesn't explode, which I don't think our new President will allow. So be prepared for some tax credits and more US debt to prop us up until the real expansion comes... in the form of clean tech and renewable energy jobs. Biotech may also have a role as well as new manufacturing and agribusiness opportunities. The world has to be fed, right? Also, corn is looking more important in this new world. Underneath all the depression there is a new foundation being built...

Yes, really, I think we've hit bottom... Friday's jobs data may not be so bad...

Sources
1. Recession-Hit Automakers Brace for Grim US Sales
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: December 2, 2008
Filed at 12:16 a.m. ET

With the decision by the NBER, a group of academics, the United States has fallen into two recessions during President George W. Bush's eight years in office. The first one started in March 2001 and ended in November of that year.

[The 2001 recession lasted 8 months... we are already into month 12...]

2. Recession Began Last December, Economists Say
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
Published: December 1, 2008

3. Dow Plunges on News Recession Began in Dec. 2007
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: December 1, 2008
Filed at 11:13 p.m. ET

4. Cheer Fades as Stocks Plunge 9%
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
Published: December 1, 2008

5. National Bureau of Economic Research: Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity [PDF]

There is no time.

Feed The Animals

I downloaded Girl Talk's Feed the Animals from illegal-art after following a link from one of the music sites, but it wasn't until today, after reading yesterday's NY Times article, that I started listening to it. It reminds me of the excitement of finding out about mashups back in 2004, but a more wrapped up, commercial version-- a more accessible, updated, and less clowny version of DJ Yoda's Amazing Adventures. Like most mashups, GT's songs capture the best moments of popular contemporary songs to stir up your emotions in a post-post-modern we-play-everything radio play for the short-attention span, multitasking, always-online, text-messaging twitter generation.

Sources:
1. Girl Talk: Feed the Animals
2. Making Girls Dance: All in a Night’s Work By JON PARELES Published: November 19, 2008
3. Steal This Hook? D.J. Skirts Copyright Law By ROBERT LEVINE Published: August 6, 2008
4. The Amazing Adventures of DJ Yoda

A library card

At 3:45 AM on election day, the Somerville fire department accidentally sent an all-points bulletin about a fire on Walnut street, intended for department heads, to everyone in town who registered to receive City updates on snow emergencies and street sweeping through its Connect CTY system. On the David Square livejournal, duffless2323 responded to those seeking apologies:

The city has offered restitution for those affected. They have made arrangements for any one affected to get a special pass/card which can be used at all branches of the somerville library. With this card you can check out not only books, but dvds and books on tape, FOR FREE. You just need to sign up.

How to Win

David Plouffe seems to be every bit the opposite of Lee Atwater, and a welcome change for politics. He used Deval Patrick's campaign for governor in Massachussets as a test case for Obama's grassroots popular appeal, and the strategy worked. This is a welcome change from the win-at-all-costs strategies of Lee Atwater and his protege Karl Rove.

I can't find the Chicago Trib David Plouffe article referenced on his Wikipedia page, but found it on this howieinseattle blog:

As Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager, Plouffe was the mastermind behind a winning strategy that looked well past Super Tuesday's contests on Feb. 5 and placed value on large and small states.

The campaign had the money to make such a potentially low-yield wager, and Plouffe had long understood that the Democratic Party's complex system for apportioning convention delegates meant winning even one congressional district in a state could help generate the total needed to reach the magic number.

From his 11th-floor Michigan Avenue office, he sent resources to such states as Nebraska, Idaho and North Dakota that Sen. Hillary Clinton virtually ignored, putting extra emphasis on those with lower-turnout caucuses instead of primaries.

The plan, which had been in his head at least as far back as late 2006, was partly out of necessity because Clinton's early name recognition and party ties gave her advantages in big states.

The strategy proved itself in the two weeks after Feb. 5, as Obama won 11 contests in a row and achieved a delegate lead he never would lose. In late February, Plouffe reportedly confided to a colleague that he believed a mathematical tipping point had been reached.

'A rare talent'
Marking one of the biggest upsets in U.S. political history, Obama himself saluted his behind-the-scenes general at the start of his victory speech last week in St. Paul.

"Thank you to our campaign manager David Plouffe, who never gets any credit, but who has built the best political organization in the country," he said.

As Obama's campaign transitions to the general election, Plouffe (pronounced Pluff) will lead the way. Ironically, it will be against someone he listed in 2003, in a Washington political journal, as his favorite Republican, Sen. John McCain.

In a campaign filled with alums from the 2004 presidential efforts of Sen. John Kerry and former Rep. Richard Gephardt, Plouffe comes from the Gephardt branch.

In 2003 and early 2004, he served as a senior adviser to Gephardt's short-lived presidential bid, a dozen years after getting his first taste for presidential politics working on a campaign for Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa.

That Iowa experience helped him understand the state's arcane presidential caucus system and just how important an early win there would be in knocking the air of inevitability out of Clinton.

Lean and about 5 feet 10 inches tall, Plouffe can seem almost shy compared to more gregarious campaign personalities. But he can swear like a sailor, and his near-broadcast-quality voice exudes confidence on the many conference calls he holds with reporters and donors.

"He's not a weirdo, and a lot of the people who you meet at the senior level of presidential campaigns are eccentric or difficult or egomaniacs," said friend and Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf. "If you look at the high command of the Obama campaign, normalcy seems to weave through them."

Plouffe, 41, is a business partner with Chicago-based media strategist David Axelrod and worked with him on Obama's winning 2004 U.S. Senate campaign. But Plouffe, unlike Axelrod, rarely appears in front of television cameras.

"He's the most disciplined and focused person I have ever met in politics," said Elmendorf, who previously supported Clinton. "It is very easy to get distracted by the press and donors and activists. David just has a great filter and he doesn't let any of the noise bother him. In a presidential campaign, that's a rare talent."

Stealing bases, not show
Plouffe, who declined to be interviewed for this article, believes the airing of campaign disputes in public should be avoided at all costs and that the candidate should always be the focus. Even with a rapidly growing staff of about 800, unintentional leaks are rare.

"He is smart and scrappy and doesn't bring a huge amount of ego to the table," said JoDee Winterhof, a political strategist who has worked with and competed against Plouffe at several points of his career.

Like a baseball manager who knows it is a long season, Plouffe tends to avoid highs or lows, similar to his candidate. While his boss cheers for the White Sox, Plouffe prefers the Phillies (a reflection of a childhood in Delaware).

Plouffe's singular focus on running the campaign was displayed last week when he refused, despite encouragement, to fly with Obama to Minnesota for a victory rally. He stayed behind with the staff in Chicago, where he gave a pep talk about the historic moment.

"He was about as happy as we've seen him," a campaign aide said.

Guarding the coffers
Plouffe's campaign office door is always open, but his wallet isn't.

Although Obama's campaign has shattered fundraising records, Plouffe, the survivor of congressional campaigns that have run short on money, is well-known for his frugality.

Staff members are often paid less than their Clinton counterparts were, many double up in hotel rooms while on the road, and the "L" is the preferred form of transportation to and from Chicago's airports. At least early on, workers who wanted business cards were typically expected to pay for the printing themselves.

By guarding the campaign's coffers, Plouffe was able to ensure Obama had the money he needed after an expensive Super Tuesday advertising surge.

A specialist in tactics, Plouffe also understands the workings of the media and has offered lines for Obama speeches that were powerful enough to make the final cut, a skill he honed working on many other campaigns and with Axelrod.

'They will have a plan'
While there is no time for the sandlot this summer, those who have worked with him say he brings his same zeal for statistics to politics as he does when he is pitching in recreational leagues or following the batting averages of his favorite players.

"He's fascinated by numbers," said Democratic consultant Bill Carrick, who worked with him in 1999 and 2000 when Plouffe was executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "He just has an insatiable appetite for this stuff and he could keep all of it in his head."

Carrick credits Obama's success with his campaign's long view.

"From the very beginning of this campaign, David was very focused on the calendar and the sequence of it," he said. "The Obama campaign planned for the potential of it being a longer campaign all along."

In politics since college, Plouffe worked with Axelrod on the successful 2006 campaign of Deval Patrick for Massachusetts governor. An earlier big win came in 1996, when he managed the campaign for Bob Torricelli to fill Bill Bradley's U.S. Senate seat.

Plouffe joined Axelrod's consulting business in the winter of 2000 and was named a partner of AKP&D Message and Media in 2004 (the "P" is for Plouffe).

"He has the capacity to handle more details in his head at one time than anyone I know," Axelrod said. "David is very determined at whatever he does."

Elmendorf, meanwhile, said he looks for more of the same from Plouffe in the general election.

"It was probably the best-run presidential campaign in a generation," he said. "They will have a plan. It may not be clear yet, but they will execute it."

Sources:
1. Frontline: Boogieman, the Lee Atwater Story
2. Wikipedia: David Plouffe
3. McCormick, John (2008-06-08). "Obama's campaign chief: low profile, high impact", The Chicago Tribune. [broken link]
4. Howie Martin: "Obama's campaign chief: low profile, high impact"

I'm not acting

Comments after the news that Joaquin Phoenix announced that he is giving up acting to focus on his music.

"Casey looks like he's afraid he's gonna get whacked with that rolled up paper."
hawaiian | October 29 2008 at 03:13 PM

"I'd like to say something, I'm no longer an actor, I'm a puppeteer. -John Malkovich"
cal_79 | October 29 2008 at 03:20 PM

"He's quitting acting? When did he start?"
AmericanMark | October 29 2008 at 05:41 PM

photo courtesy REUTERS/Robert Galbraith (UNITED STATES)

Just a normal day...

From
curlytoes79 regarding the end of the 1978 version of Invasion of the Body Snatchers:

Looks like a normal day at a government agency to me!

Here's a better quality video:

How much are we spending?

"On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve pledged $540 billion to make sure [money-market mutual funds] really are [safe]."

Add that to the $700 billion plus that the Treasury department has already spent... Representative Carolyn Maloney (D-New York, 14th District: Manhattan, Astoria) summed it up nicely at the The Causes and Effects of the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy meeting with the House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on Monday, October 6, 2008 (lines 864-871 of the Preliminary Transcript):

"We are facing what has been called the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. And the potential cost to [the] taxpayer is staggering: $29 billion to J.P. Morgan to buy Bear Stearns; $85 billion to AIG; $200 billion to Fannie and Freddie; $700 billion rescue package; $300 billion to the Fed window opening it up to investment banks; $50 billion to stabilize the money market funds. A staggering $1.7 billion potential cost to taxpayers."

Plus whatever has been spent between then and now. How much is all of this going to cost us? Can we really trust the Federal government to get us the best deal for our taxpayer dollars? Check out Frontline's report on the Resolution Trust Company and how some people profited by putting out offers on houses, such as $1,200 for a house worth $80,000 and getting the deal, without any kind of a counter offer by the government. The story goes on to say that these people submitted over 20 offers ranging from $50 to $8,000, and getting them all.

Sources:
1. NY Times Dealbook blog
Fed Adds to Its Efforts to Aid Credit Markets
October 22, 2008, 7:56 am

2. The Causes and Effects of the Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy
Monday, October 6, 2008
House of Representatives,
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
Preliminary Transcript PDF available here.

3. Frontline 1991: The Great American Bailout

4. Fed Chairman Endorses New Round of Stimulus
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
Published: October 20, 2008

"The government announced last week that it would invest $250 billion directly into the nation’s banks as part of a $700 billion bailout package to ease the financial turmoil and loosen the credit markets. In addition, the government has helped bail out the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as the insurance giant the American International Group."

5. JPMorgan Acts to Buy Ailing Bear Stearns at Huge Discount
By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN and LANDON THOMAS Jr.
Published: March 16, 2008

"The companies said that the Federal Reserve would provide special financing in connection with the transaction and that the Fed had agreed to fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns’s 'less-liquid assets.'"

The mess keeps getting messier...

Melinda, commenting on an article in the St. Petersburg Times, sums things up nicely. The Times reported about how Bubba The Love Sponge Clem contributed large sums of money to Sheriff Jim Coats campaign for reelection. From the article:

To date, Clem has given $1,000 to Coats under his own name. He also sent money to the campaign through seven corporations:
• The Bubba Radio Network ($500).
• Bubba Army ($500).
• BRN Shock Media ($500).
• BTLS Web Media ($500).
• B3H Web Holdings ($100).
• BRN Travel, Inc. ($250).
• Intense Frequency ($500).
Clem promised $2,000 or $3,000 more from people including his wife, Heather, and his producer, Hatley.

Melinda's comment:

If someone who legally changed his name to include 'Love Sponge' is this adept at creating shell corporations to evade taxes and buy influence, imagine how dirty it gets higher up the power ladder.

Credit Crisis: Episode II: The Empire Strikes

The $700 billion bailout sets the stage for the third episode, Revenge of the Market Makers.
Actually, episode I should have been called A Phantom Menace? Followed by Attack of the Fed, Revenge, and the rest fits as by that time we won't be in the same Universe anymore anyway:
Episode IV - A New Hope
Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back
Episode VI - Return of the Jedi

A Father Dies

21 years. You could even say more because it was 21 years since it was published. Gestational periods vary on a first born. So his baby grew up into a privileged college junior who probably took one of his own classes and showed up, feeling superior and special, clever and ironic, and pissed him off so much that when it graduated early he thought there was nothing more to do but hang himself.

Now, his child, fresh out of college and entering the workforce, can do nothing but slave away in the marketplace and die the same anonymous death that most of the masses face, never reaching the level of fame or renown as it's father. Sure, people talk about it, but talking about its birth and growth is not the same as appreciating its accomplishments, the things it was able to do on its own, the lives it transformed, single-handedly, without any help from Daddy.

It's sad, though, because its father is always in its shadow now-- and that becomes part of the narrative of its own life-- did it cause his death? The question is as unanswerable as why it was born.

DFW 2/21/62 - 9/12/08

The Economy

STATEMENT FROM SENATOR OBAMA ON THE SITUATION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS
September 15, 2008

This morning we woke up to some very serious and troubling news from Wall Street.

The situation with Lehman Brothers and other financial institutions is the latest in a wave of crises that are generating enormous uncertainty about the future of our financial markets. This turmoil is a major threat to our economy and its ability to create good-paying jobs and help working Americans pay their bills, save for their future, and make their mortgage payments.

The challenges facing our financial system today are more evidence that too many folks in Washington and on Wall Street weren’t minding the store. Eight years of policies that have shredded consumer protections, loosened oversight and regulation, and encouraged outsized bonuses to CEOs while ignoring middle-class Americans have brought us to the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression.

I certainly don’t fault Senator McCain for these problems, but I do fault the economic philosophy he subscribes to. It’s a philosophy we’ve had for the last eight years – one that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. It’s a philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise, and one that says we should just stick our heads in the sand and ignore economic problems until they spiral into crises.

Well now, instead of prosperity trickling down, the pain has trickled up – from the struggles of hardworking Americans on Main Street to the largest firms of Wall Street.
This country can’t afford another four years of this failed philosophy. For years, I have consistently called for modernizing the rules of the road to suit a 21st century market – rules that would protect American investors and consumers. And I’ve called for policies that grow our economy and our middle-class together. That is the change I am calling for in this campaign, and that is the change I will bring as President.

STATEMENT BY JOHN MCCAIN ON THE FINANCIAL MARKETS
Monday, September 15, 2008

ARLINGTON, VA -- Today, U.S. Senator John McCain issued the following statement on the situation in the financial markets:

"The crisis in our financial markets has taken an enormous toll on our economy and the American people -- first the decline of our housing markets followed by the collapse of Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and now Lehman Brothers. I am glad to see that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have said no to using taxpayer money to bailout Lehman Brothers, a position I have spoken about throughout this campaign. We are carefully monitoring the financial markets, including the duress at Lehman Brothers that is the latest reminder of ineffective regulation and management. Efforts must also be focused on ensuring that the deposits of hardworking Americans are protected.

"It is essential for us to make sure that the U.S. remains the pre-eminent financial market of the world. This will be a highest priority of my Administration. In order to do this, major reform must be made in Washington and on Wall Street. We cannot tolerate a system that handicaps our markets and our banks and places at risk the savings of hard-working Americans and investors. The McCain-Palin Administration will replace the outdated and ineffective patchwork quilt of regulatory oversight in Washington and bring transparency and accountability to Wall Street. We will rebuild confidence in our markets and restore our leadership in the financial world."

McCain's bullshit stinks more.

No really, the sky is falling

This time it's for real. If you want to see someone squirm, watch the White House Briefing with Secretary Paulson from 1:45 PM on 9/15/2008 on cspan.org. I wouldn't be surprised if he resigns soon.

Separated at birth?

McCain's new VP candidate Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin and SNL alumna and 30 Rock Creator Tina Fey.

Conspiracy theory or controversy?

Is the press focusing on black leaders and black controversy?
In what may seem to be a conspiracy theory in advance of a historic presidential race which may lead to the first black president in American history, stories about black people in power and their actions and reactions to racial issues are creeping into the headlines at an alarming rate.

In a moment reminiscent of the Human Stain, where Coleman Silk, a black professor passing for white innocently calls two black students he has never seen in his class "spooks" and inadvertently causes his own downfall, a black county commissioner in Dallas took umbrage when a white commissioner used the term "black hole" to describe how traffic tickets seem to get sucked into the county's collections office and never come out. From the reaction, you would think he said they were being processed in CP time.

This controversy came on the heels of a Denver Jazz singer's interpretive reworking of the National Anthem, prompting many reporters to get Barack Obama's response (strangely, I don't remember what John McCain said about it, nor do I see him being turned to whenever an elderly person does something controversial, like Max Mosley's S&M German war fantasy). This was followed by Jesse Jackson's swift apology for his hot mic castration comment on Barack Obama, before it even had the chance to blow up into a full-fledged controversy, and Charles Rangel's recent impromptu sidewalk press conference on his four rent-controlled apartments. These garden-variety (is that a safe term? Please don't misinterpret) scandals wouldn't mean much if there weren't a black Democratic Presidential Candidate with overwhelming support and a promise for true political change running against an aging, forgetful, and frankly, losing candidate on the Republican side.

What worries me is that these talking points, intentional or not, may come back as disassociated doubts in voter's minds come election day in November, thanks to some new studies reported recently in the Times ("Your Brain Lies to You"). This source amnesia occurs when facts, true or not, stored in the hippocampus, are transferred into long-term memory. Even if a lie is qualified as such, it can become true in the few months it takes to be transferred from short-term memory to long-term.

The studies go on to show that in the long run, the old adage is true, people only hear what they want to hear (unless they are encouraged to keep an open mind-- but who does that?). It doesn't help that the focus these days continues to be about race rather than unity.

Sources:
1. Jazzy Anthem
2. Jesse's nuts
3. Black holes
4. Rangel-controlled apartments
5. Human Stain book and movie
6. Mosley sex scandal
7. What is a fact anyway? (Your Brain Lies to You)

Gadget Reporter Goof

This is why I love comments.

Barron's Tech Trader Daily sent a reporter to stand in line for the new iPhone G3 and posted this initial entry:

"Barron’s Magazine gadget reporter Jay Palmer tells me he’s 14th in line to buy Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 3G at the Apple store in Bridgewater Commons mall in central New Jersey, with about 100 people behind him..."

Later, they write:

"Update: Jay is leaving the Apple store, fuming mad. He says that after waiting for three hours, he’s been told he’s ineligible for a phone because of the 10% corporate discount he enjoys on his AT&T plan through Dow Jones, part of News Corp. (NWS) and publisher of this blog. Well, if you have some kind of corporate plan, you may experience some issues with your purchase, I guess. More on this once the smoke stops coming out of Jay’s ears."

Here are some of the better comments:

With all do respect, Jay needs to understand that it has been stated on the Apple website and other sources that corporate/business customers need to go to an AT&T store and not to an Apple store.
Comment by John - July 11, 2008 at 9:24 am

Yup, Jay didn’t do his homework. He didn’t watch the AT&T video, or read the Apple or AT&T webpages on what to do to avoid exactly what happened to him.
Do reporters actually do any work?
Comment by mark - July 11, 2008 at 9:28 am

What a retard. Sounds like someone should have done their research before camping out like a loser in front a store to be one of the first to get an iPhone. If it was that big of a deal he would have purchased it without the discount. Schmuck.
Comment by Kris - July 11, 2008 at 9:28 am

And more:

iphone? wireless? internet?
I still use my rotary dial Mickey Mouse phone. The ringer is even adjustable.
Comment by smarty123 - July 11, 2008 at 10:47 am

Can the iphone be used to call up people or is it just a walkie talkie?
Comment by curious - July 11, 2008 at 10:50 am

Credit Crisis: Episode I: No Hope

I created a Star Wars crawl on the credit crisis, with the text from this AP story. I think Lucas could do wonders with a movie...

Update: The site was closed due to a Lucasfilm C&A. It was fun while it lasted. Maybe some day Mr. Lucas will charge us only $.99 to make our own. [7/11/08]

Update: The AP story is now gone. I found it, or what I think is the story on http://floridaloanspecialist.wordpress.com (searched for home foreclosures June 5, 2008 associated press on Google). [9/24/08]

WASHINGTON (AP) – June 5, 2008 – Home foreclosures and late payments set records over the first three months of the year and are expected to keep rising, stark signs of the housing crisis’ mounting damage to homeowners and the economy.
The latest snapshot of the mortgage market showed that the proportion of mortgages that fell into foreclosure soared to 0.99 percent in the January-through-March period. That surpassed the previous high of 0.83 percent over the last three months in 2007.
The report by the Mortgage Bankers Association also found that more homeowners slipped behind on their monthly payments.
The delinquency rate jumped to 6.35 percent in the first quarter, compared with 5.82 percent for the three months earlier. Payments are considered delinquent if they are 30 or more days past due.
Both the rate of new foreclosures and late payments were the highest on record going back to 1979.
Jay Brinkmann, the association’s vice president of research and economics, told The Associated Press that the slump in house prices was the biggest factor for rising foreclosures and late payments.
With prices expected to keep dropping, foreclosures and late payments “are going to continue to go up” in the months ahead, he said.
Homeowners with tarnished credit who have subprime adjustable-rate loans took the hardest hits. Foreclosures and late payments for these borrowers also swelled to all-time highs in the first quarter.
The percentage of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages that started the foreclosure process climbed to 6.35 percent. The rate was 5.29 percent in fourth quarter, the previous high.
Late payments rose to 22.07 percent from 20.02 percent, the previous high.
The association’s survey covers just over 45 million home loans.
More problems also cropped up with loans to more creditworthy borrowers.
The percentage of such loans falling into foreclosure was 0.54 percent, compared with 0.41 percent at the end of last year. Late payment rose to 3.71 percent, compared with 3.24 percent.
The numbers were higher for prime borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages. The proportion of those loans falling into foreclosures jumped to 1.55 percent from 1.06 percent. The delinquency rate rose to 6.78 percent, compared with 5.51 percent.
“The number one problem is the drop in home prices,” Brinkmann said. Declining prices, especially in newer built areas, “are hurting people’s ability to recover when they run into trouble – a divorce or loss of job,” he said. “In other days, you could sell the home. But because home prices have fallen so much, in many of those cases, the homes are going into foreclosure.”
California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona accounted for 89 percent of the total increase in new home foreclosures, he said. Those are places where prices have fallen sharply and there was a lot of home building, creating too much supply, Brinkmann said.
The housing crisis is at the center of the country’s economic troubles.
After a five-year boom, the market fell into a deep slump two years ago. That dragged down sales, and prices with it. As the value of homes plummeted, many newer homeowners found themselves owing more on their mortgages than their homes were worth.
Homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages were clobbered when their initially low rates reset to much higher ones. That made it difficult, if not impossible, to keep up with monthly mortgage payments.
As foreclosures and late payments climbed, financial companies took multibillion losses when their investments in mortgage-backed securities soured. A credit crisis erupted and spread, crimping other types of financing. The fallout plunged Wall Street in turmoil, disrupting the normal functioning of markets.
All those troubles have pushed the economy to the brink of a recession, if the country isn’t already in one. Consumers and business have tightened their spending. Employers have cut more than a quarter-million jobs in the first four months of this year.
To bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve made aggressive interest rate cuts. That has helped homeowners facing rate resets on their adjustable-rate mortgages. But with inflation on the rise, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke this week sent his strongest signal yet that the central bank’s rate-cutting campaign that started in September is coming to an end.
The Bush administration has taken steps to help distressed homeowners. It has urged lenders to freeze rates for some homeowners and encouraged lenders to rework mortgage terms so troubled borrowers can stay in their homes.
Congress is considering giving government-backed mortgages to thousands of strapped borrowers. The White House has expressed some concerns.
Source: ap.org

Get Hillary a Lozenge

Conspiracy theorists claim that Clinton coughed to avoid answering a question about the role Bill would play in her administration. I think it was just bad journalism.

satanchrist666 commented:

"Some body quick give that woman a cough drop. Then make her drink some water or pat her on her back, then ask her the question again. If she then chokes more she is most certainly faking it. Then wait until she is done faking the cough again and keep asking the question until she answers it. Never except a cough as an answer nor a way out of giving one. She stands in the way of truth like most people in her position. Remember she is merely an employee of yours! Demand truth from her!"

2baraddict wrote:

"choke on your lies Illuminati whore!!"

Link to video.

Reality Horror

Some more interesting conspiracy videos:
The 2012 Ouroborous Doomsday Clock (Part 1 of 9). Interesting discussion of the most recent complex crop circle (pictured below). I've got to find this guy's website. Check out antigrav777's profile for the other 8 parts.





Esoteric Agenda from www.talismanicidols.com. A frightening look inside inner circles and the one world religion. Not sure how real it is, but it makes for good reality horror (stuff that is more frightening if you believe it). Watch it soon as the youtube version was removed by the poster:

Update: Looks like the video was removed from Google too. [7/11/08]

Oil

Oh yeah, and oil would be up to $135 a barrel, which a year from now, will seem pretty cheap, when we're paying $6 a gallon at the pump, and there are riots in the streets that Homeland Security is suppressing. Maybe the conspiracy theorists aren't so crazy after all.

Update: At close to $150 a barrel, $135 sounds cheap! [7/11/08]

Triphop

It's like 1995 is back again.
Tricky's coming out with a new album, Knowle West Boy, due out in the UK on July 7. US release Sep 9th. Single is Council Estate. Video currently on the website with other preview tracks. Single out June 30. You can download parts of it to make your own remix on the Knowle West Boy site. More news here. Brown Punk (Tricky's label).

Portishead just released Third

Martina Topley Bird just released The Blue God

Maybe Hope Sandoval will release something soon.

Obama/Edwards

Potential Running Mates

For Discussion:

Edwards' politics are more in line with Obama's than any of the other candidates.

This might be the worst of both worlds, with Hillary and Bill to contend with, Barack would find it difficult to make the changes in his administration he promises in his campaign. Plus, he has already categorized Hillary as a divider rather than a unifier.

(No, not the little girl). Bill may not be eligible for the number 2 spot. I'd have to check the constitution for that.

While not a winning combination, the difference in style between Sharpton and Obama would be a field day for the press. Again, Obama is looking for someone who bridges gaps, not creates them.

Jackson certainly has been around, but would not add anything to this ticket.

Kennedy could get the feeling for the reigns of Executive power without getting his hands dirty holding them. He could take a page from Cheney's book and be the real power behind the throne. Is this the future of American politics?

The year 2000 was such a long time ago. Why was Lieberman on any ticket?

Oprah certainly knows how to unify people -- or at least the target audience for her show.

The Economy: One Year Later

If I told you last year that housing would drop, major lenders like Accredited Home Lenders and New Century Financial would be gone, Countrywide would be absorbed into Bank of America, Bear Stearns would be bought at fire sale prices by JPMorgan, investment brokers and banks would write down record losses, the Fed would cut a combined total of 3.25%, finance the Bear Stearns take over, and virtually photocopy money for banks, would you have believed me?

Market sells on Fed mixed message

As I write this, stocks are up, but they should close down and lead to a down few weeks. The GDP came in line, not negative, but still indicates a general slowdown with no clear end in sight. The banks and financials (XLF) will not be able to break through the downtrend as the market uncertainties that lead to the rally are gone with the GDP and Fed data now known. The only remainder is the job numbers, which are a lagging, rather than a leading indicator of the economy. Many economists believe businesses will face a slow 2nd quarter before improving in the 2nd half of the year. The leader out of this pseudo-recession/slowdown will be the banks, and with Citigroup's announcement of a $4.5 billion stock offering to raise funds, after the company said it would not, and projections of more to come, it appears that there is still weakness and not enough confidence to bolster up the recent gains. (1) Looking for S&P to retrace end of March/mid-April lows. Holding May SDS and QID calls.

The rising dollar will be halted and start to fall again with the Fed's recent cut, as well as no promises against further easing. The Fed gave the market what it wanted in a 25 bps cut, but commodities are showing signs of inflation, and the unclear/non-existent language of an end to the easing will make it harder for the Fed to signal a reversal, if one is indeed coming. Criticism that the Fed is making rush judgments comes from Allan H. Meltzer, Cargegie Mellon political economy professor, who says:

"My view is that the Fed is back doing the silly things it did in the 1970s, of trying to make judgments that have long-term consequences based on short-term data... It should get back to the period of 1985 to 2003 known as the Great Moderation."

Looking for gold to reach Mid-March or Mid-April highs. Bought GLD.

Sources:
1. Citigroup Increases Stock Offering to $4.5 Billion
2. Fed Cuts Rate by a Quarter Point, to 2%

The above essay is for the purposes of discussion only and should not be taken as investment advice.

Negative GDP

We could see the first negative GDP in awhile, insuring that we are in the midst of a recession. I think the recession started in August with the credit crisis, but most likely, economists will say it started in November and will end this fall, with some growth in the fourth quarter if we're lucky. The President spoke this morning about the state of the economy and finally admitted that we are in tough times (everyone is waiting for confirmation before they say the word "recession"). A reporter asked if he had seen the GDP numbers yet, and he said he had not. However, I think he was tipped off and took the opportunity to blame Congress for the state of the economy and high oil prices (incidentally, I'm more apt to believe that high prices are being caused by a production bottleneck).

Sources:
1. Saying Times Are Difficult, Bush Presses Congress to Act
2. Amid High Oil Prices, Danger Signs in Production

Apple Earnings Call

In the Seeking Alpha Apple Earnings transcript, Peter Oppenheimer answers a question about delayed iPhone revenue recognition:

"We are doing this -- as I said in my prepared remarks -- because we announced specific new features that will be included in the iPhone 2.0 software that we plan to provide for customers for free who purchased after our announcement on March 6th. So we will delay revenue recognition on phones sold between March 6th and the date of the delivery of the software."

Apple announced the iPhone 2.0 beta on March 6th and stopped recognizing revenue on iPhones sold from that date forward. iPhone 2.0 is focused on 3rd party and business applications. It includes the SDK as well as support for Microsoft Exchange ActiveSynch and Cisco IPsec VPN. Apple will offer this as a free software upgrade to all iPhone users in June. They will probably release the software during their Worldwide Developers Conference on June 9-13. I wouldn't be surprised if they announced the 3G phones at the same time. I wonder if Apple is also delaying revenue recognition of the $299 per year Enterprise Program.

Another good question, from Andrew Neff, of the soon to be gone Bear Stearns:
"Any further thoughts on cash use, what you are going to do with all that cash?"
To which Peter Oppenheimer responded:
"We're going to buy Yahoo."
Just kidding.

More on the iPhone supply (or lack thereof), from Timothy D. Cook:

"iPhone again, we really outstripped our supply toward the end of the quarter because we sold more than we had expected. We thought there would be a -- more of a sequential decline there than there was. It was reasonably strong throughout but March in particular was strong."

That's good news. If March in particular was strong, and they are not recognizing the revenue of iPhones sold since March 6th until June, we may see a large boost in the third quarter to account for all the iPhones sold after the 2.0 announcement.

Shaw Wu, the Yahoo board's infamous analyst, asked for comments about Apple's recent purchase of PA Semi and was given a non-answer. He promptly disappeared.

Sources:
1. Apple F2Q08 (Qtr End 3/29/08) Earnings Call Transcript
2. Apple Announces iPhone 2.0 Software Beta

The rearview mirror has the best view

Apple beat EPS estimates by 10 cents, but guided 10 cents lower for the 3rd quarter.(1) The stock went up to 167 as the news was released, but is now trading down, currently below 159. It's a mixed bag as to what it will open at tomorrow. Some of the disappointments may be that expectations were so high, Apple would have had to announce $1.50 per share, over $8 billion in revenue, and $1.20 EPS guidance for Q3 for the stock to go up. Also, gross margins fell, from 35.1% to 32.9% when comparing quarters year-for-year. But the positive news is goode enough to justify an entry point in the next few weeks, if Apple stays at these prices:

Apple shipped 2,289,000 Macintosh® computers during the quarter, representing 51 percent unit growth and 54 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter.

iPod sales increased by 1%, and did not fall as expected.

It looked bad for Apple yesterday as the stock dropped as much as it rose on Monday, but at midnight, Apple revealed that it agreed to buy PA Semi (2), a small microprocessor design company, which will give the computer company tighter control of its supply chain, as well as an edge on smartphone and MP3 competition (although Apple seems to be moving away from the MP3 space and into mini-computers).

PA Semi makes ARM processors used in small devices.(3) The Apple Newton and Palm PDAs used Advanced RISC Machines (ARM) processors (4, 5) as well as Digital set-top boxes, cameras, TVs, and gaming machines. ARM was spun out of a collaboration between Apple Computer and Acorn Computer Group in 1990.(6) One of their strengths is creating low power chips, such as a 64-bit dual core microprocessor developed last year that they claimed was 300% more efficient than any other on the market. This may signal a departure by Apple from its recent exclusivity with Intel, which is notorious for driving profit margins down while increasing their market share. Intel is promoting their new Atom chips for handheld devices. Apple is said to have purchased PA Semi for $278 million in a deal negotiated in Steve Jobs' home. The acquisition didn't seem affect the stock, except to possibly keep it above water during the day.

Next up: Visa earnings on Monday. Might be a good straddle play. Also, Saturday is the deadline for Yahoo to accept or decline the Microsoft offer.(7) It looks like they already made their decision, but you can't know for sure until Sunday. If the answer is still no, Microsoft will take the offer to Yahoo shareholders.

Sources:
1. Apple Reports Record Second Quarter Results
2. Apple Buys Chip Designer
3. ARM Powered Products
4. Apple website: MessagePad 120: W/Newton 2.0 OS Specifications
5. Palm -- About Palm, Inc
6. ARM Milestones
7. Microsoft CEO willing to walk away from Yahoo bid

Who do you want in charge of your budget?

"Mr. Obama is spending 75 cents for every dollar he is taking in; Mrs. Clinton is spending $1.10."

Apple Earnings

Andy Zaky has a good forecast for Apple earnings of $1.33 in EPS and $7.587 billion in revenue.(1) Apple's run up has gotten people nervous, some guessing that there will be a sharp fall if they miss, others making good and bad comparisons to Google. Veldemir on Yahoo Finance says it's a setup.(2)

Google high was 747 and got whacked down to 412. (45% decrease).

Apple's high was 200 and got whacked down to 115 (42.5% decrease).

Now GOOG is at 540 which is 28% off it's high.
Apple is at 161 which is 19% off it's high.

He argues that Apple will be knocked down to 28% off it's high, or somewhere around 144 after earnings.

Fortune's Apple 2.0 blog has a nice spreadsheet of analysts who have recently upped their estimates for Apple EPS and revenues.(3)

My guess is that Apple will follow the market for the next two days, closing down to allow for profit taking and uncertainty before earnings. Apple will blast through earnings, lead by international iPhone sales and a surprising beat on U.S. iPhone sales and a large beat on total Mac sales around the world. And the stock will reach 205 or higher by the end of the week. Then it will slowly dribble down again through the summer, only to reach new highs when the new iPhone and iPhone applications are released sometime in June. Overall, a rollercoaster ride, hard to time, but fun to ride.

1. Apple Set to Significantly Beat Analysts Q2 2008 Earnings Estimates
2. It's a setup folks
3. Analysts scramble to raise Apple estimates

CNBC has a good, balanced article on Google's earnings report, to be announced after the close today. Some key quotes:

Google and the experts following the company do seem to agree there is some kind of slowdown afoot; what the market has to digest is how severe it is, and what exactly is causing it. Remember that last quarter on the earnings call, CEO Eric Schmidt was clear in saying that the company was seeing no signs of an economic slowdown, no signs of recession. For a company that doesn't offer any meaningful guidance, analysts will be listening extremely closely to the comments on the conference call today to see if that position has changed any. If Google sees signs of a macro-economic slowdown, that could be bad news not just for Google, but for Yahoo, Amazon and others. Citigroup's tells me "there's a very clear bogey laid out there. We're going to see whether they'll repeat those exact words this quarter, or start fading away from them."

These shares are off better than 30 percent this quarter, so it's clear traders aren't expecting much. For the longer term investor, however, with Google closing the DoubleClick deal on the quarter, increasing its market share in search, Yahoo and Microsoft distracted by the hostile takeover and no real competitor offering any challenge to Google, slowdown or not, Google looks very attractive at these levels. If you're patient, and can stomach the short term vagaries.

It might be a good idea to see what the quarterly report says and consider buying more stock in the weeks after earnings. However, if you do not intend to hold this stock for the next 5-10 years, it may not be worthwhile to buy. A good comparison with Google is Yahoo. Back in the 90s, Yahoo enjoyed the same fanatical following that Google has now. They were the entryway to the internet, a portal through which you could find websites in the new World Wide Web. They also had a gimick search algorithm-- pages were searched by humans. Google has a similar algorithm, while it uses technology, humans are still behind it as it puts links with the most linkbacks in the top of the search. [The basics: A Web page is a bunch of media such as images and text and links that, when you click them, open up a new Web page. If a Web page has a lot of links to it from other pages (called linkbacks), it will become more popular when people search its contents on Google.]

Yahoo's IPO was in April of 1996 and it shot up fast, splitting multiple times in the next 5 years until the tech bubble burst. I think we are seeing the same thing with Google now. In another 5 years, or maybe less, new technology may come up and take over. There are already rumors that if Facebook offers an IPO, it will become the new darling of Wall Street, mainly because it is the new thing with so much promise (Wall Street likes growth companies, especially when they are new and unproven). With so much going for it, I don't think this is the end of Google. I think that it is in the beginning stages of it's run up.

Sources:
1. With Google's Earnings, Investors Need to Be Patient
2. Yahoo IPO closes at $33 after $43 peak

Mid-Week Update

Intel reported good earnings.(1) It looks like their March 3 warning was premature. JP Morgan, Coca Cola, Wells Fargo, and Abbott Labs reported before the bell today and IBM, EBAY, ALTR, and GILD report after the bell. JP Morgan's profit fell by 50%, but that didn't stop the stock from going up 5%.(2)

Although finances have been decoupled from tech in the past, it's good to see a rally in financials because it may indicate that the worst is over and things may be getting back to normal, or what will pass for normal in 2008. Everyone seems to be getting comfortable with the notion that the first part of the year will be slow and the second part will pick up. Just as you want to sell when your taxi driver starts giving you stock tips, you want to buy when news anchors admit that we are in a recession. No one wanted to admit it, but the recession started in August, and most likely will end in September of this year, with stocks reaching or exceeding their highs in December. According to Bob Doll, BlackRock's global equity CIO, "The current earnings recession of negative year-over-year comparisons will last four quarters. Q2 2008 will be the fourth."(3) He has 9 other reasons why BlackRock likes U.S. equities. So now is the best time to buy if you are an investor, or a short-term, 8-month holder who wants to buy some stocks and take a long vacation.

As of about 12:30, most indicies have blown past resistance by now, according to Brian Shannon's Alphatrends.net analysis from yesterday.(4) The Qs (QQQQ) are at 45.25, past the 43.50 level of resistance. He called 45.50 as a key level to maintain. The Russel 2000 Index (IWM) is at 70.71. He said it would be a buy above 70.50. The S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) is at 135.47. 135 is the VWAP and 50 DMA. If it breaks 136, this could signify a right shoulder. The Financial select spider (XLF) is at 25.33. 24.40 is support. 25 was resistance. If this holds, perhaps we can see a breakthrough 26.20 to test the 50 DMA and down trend. Let's see if these levels can hold through the close.

Sources:
1. Seeking Alpha Intel Q1 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
2. Bank results soothe investors
3. Ten reasons to like U.S. equities: BlackRock
4. Trading & Investing Video Technical Analysis 4/15/08

Planet X / Nibiru / Dark Star

There's a lot of chatter that the singularity that will cause the end of history is a dark star with a solar system of it's own-- our Sun's binary sibling-- that comes close to Earth once every 2600 years or so. A simple Google search on Nibiru pulled up this website that offers an explanation. But I thought I'd embed two videos from Youtube, one, the first of a five part series describing the impending apocalypse and pointing us to a website where we can buy books and CDs to learn how to prepare ourselves for this world changing event. And another, by a skeptic and self-professed Debunker who discredits the producer of the first video, as well as other UFO and Nibiru proselytizers.

Dick and... Jane?

A picture of Dick Cheney on the White House website has convinced people that he was fooling around with a naked woman. Some saw her reflection in his sunglasses. Turns out it was just his hand on a fishing pole-- he was fly fishing. Check out the article in the LA Times. The comments are my favorite part. Here are a few:

• HEY, sometimes a bare hand DOES resemble a naked lady. [David]
  
• What naked lady in her right mind would get near him? Definitely his own hand. An old friend. hehe [mangowild]
• That's it! That's a mans hand in those glasses! I knew Cheney was gay. ;) [captainkona]
  
• It's perfectly obvious it's a reflection of his hand .... what is does reveal is apparently poor technique. The way his thumb is wrapped around the grip, it looks like he is choking it to death. Torturing it, even. On the plus side, woeful technique = safe (non-renditioned) trout. [Evilscribbler]
  
• If thats a naked woman..that probably isn't a fishing pole he's holding! [trshaw]
  
• Is that a zit on his nose reflected in his right lens, or do I see a nipple? [John]
  
• It's clearly a baby's arm holding an apple. So, the question arises, who is THAT? [lexicon ]
  
• Dick Cheney hasn't been that close to a naked woman in 40 years. [JC]
  
• Looks more like one of those high tech battery operated whips to me [Carlos Solis]
  

If there were 10, it could be a Letterman top ten list.

Barrons Blog

Apple's stock movement next week will depend on industry earnings reported (Intel on the 15th, IBM & Ebay on the 16th, Google on the 17th). If tech industry goes down, so does Apple. However, Intel could surprise and boost up the market. Also, Apple's Q2 earnings could be good, and investors could forgive the company's typically conservative estimates and bring the stock to 160 after earnings. If the Fed drops the funds rate another 50 bps, we could see another jump up at the end of the month. My guess is 165 or 170 if we're lucky. But that's a lot of ifs, and there are a lot of realistic comments in this thread, such as-- GE and UPS earnings scared people; AAPL could be at the top of a downward spiral, a la MOT; market failed 4th try to overcome resistance; CFO sold; advertisements galore; scarcity of iPhones means AAPL doesn't want to have excess inventory in a recession; what goes up on no news goes down on no news; tech's weak season; AAPL was only up due to 3G rumors-- all of these points make me want sell at a loss just to get out. I saw my money evaporate in a few days in January. I held calls that became worthless. Better safe than sorry. We'll see what next week brings.

Sources:
1. Apple Shares Sliding On Little News

Posted to Barron blog.

 

Apple: Getting Ready For March Quarter Earnings

One final note: AT&T (T) reports earnings one day before Apple; you will want to pay attention to anything they say on iPhone unit sales.

Projections

Last week Alcoa and UPS announced earnings that fell below analyst expectations and GE posted a decline in earnings. AMD announced layoffs and poor sales, and the S&P slipped to 1332.83.

However, for all the bad news, I believe there is still potential in technology. Alcoa, AMD, and UPS are not good measures for tech (although the case can be made for UPS deliveries of online purchases). Two weeks ago Oracle missed but RIMM beat profit expectations by nearly 15%, setting the tone for choppy Q1 earnings. I think we'll see a lot of up and down in this market, but overall, I hope (and here's where I worry) that AAPL will continue to be positive. I worry about hoping because I know that it's the worst thing to do in a market.

But I don't believe we will really know the effect broad-based earnings declines have on technology in general until Intel reports on the 15th, followed by IBM and Ebay on the 16th, and Google on the 17th. Only then can we really see where Apple will go.

It looks like if Apple does better than expected, but still warns for Q3, it may hold at 160 after earnings, but I don't expect to see a jump of more than 5% of whatever it is before earnings, mostly likely 145-150, if it compares to RIMM's price action after earnings. If next week is bad, I expect Apple to hold at 145 or so, but that may be wishful thinking. It could go below 140. Still, after options expiration on Friday, it could start going up again as traders place earnings bets, and even if it doesn't have much action after earnings, the Fed will most likely cut 50 bps at the end of the month and provide a boost to the market. I expect AAPL could reach 170 if we're lucky, or at least 165. So May calls are good if you can stomach the risk. However, give yourself the extra month and go into July.

I expect Intel to surprise us with good earnings, countering the AMD disappointment. I don't think we've seen the last of the good news in tech, although you should take you r profits for the summer soon after it happens. Buy back in September.

The opinions above are my own, based on Yahoo news, charts, and Bloomberg. Please do your own research.

Sources:
1. Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Drop After General Electric's Surprise Profit Miss
2. Earnings.com: IBM
3. Earnings.com: INTC
4. Earnings.com: GOOG
5. Earnings.com: EBAY
6. Earnings.com: AAPL
7. Bloomberg: European Stocks Fall; STMicroelectronics, TomTom, Barratt Drop
8. U.S. Stocks Gain, Led by Retailers, Technology; Wal-Mart Rises
9. Research In Motion Gains as Forecasts Top Estimates (Update5)
10. SAP Shares Decline as Oracle Sales Miss Estimates (Update1)

Posted to Yahoo! AAPL message board.

Poole retires, Bullard on board

St. Louis Fed Names Bullard to Succeed Retiring Poole (Update2)

Bullard's published research indicates that he, like Poole and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, espouses a numeric inflation goal. A research paper that Bullard co-wrote last year said that ``independent central banks will set low positive inflation targets in economies that possess highly developed financial markets.''

In a research paper titled ``A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance,'' written in March 2007, and revised in January, Bullard and his co-authors said that too much reliance by economists and central bankers on their own judgment has drawbacks.

Drawbacks, yes-- namely, they can't stop relying on their own judgment. If they did, the Fed wouldn't have bowed to market pressures and lowered rates, setting the stage for the impending CPI bubble and the hyperinflation that will follow.

Where Is the Next Bubble?

The next bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash

Trimming the Investment Firms

Last week, the Times had a great article explaining the credit mess to the layperson:
Can’t Grasp Credit Crisis? Join the Club

Today it came out with another good article:
What Created This Monster?

I thought a hedge fund would collapse-- I didn't know an investment firm would.

I disagree with the first article that the crisis has been going on for 7 months (which would mean it started in September)-- I think it started in August with the first big dip in the market.

More news that the crisis is spreading into other areas of credit:
CIT Taps Credit Lines and Talks of Asset Sales

Time to short Visa?
Visa Has a $45 Billion Debut on Wall St.

The trend for IPOs these days is to start them off big, then bleed them [investors] dry:
The Blackstone Group

(Which I always confuse with Blackrock, Inc, which is on the good side of this equation.)

Reminds me of the end of the tech boom.

NYT: Soldiering On, but Somber...

Hillary isn't as confident anymore.

Finbar Taggit

Yahoo Finance Tech Ticker had a video on Finbar Taggit, a hedge fund blogger that anonymously corrects incorrect stories in the press about hedge funds. See the video above, or the link for the story.

Some buzzwords:

• Rebates
• Performance fee
• Large ticket
• Lock ups
• Side letters
• Side pockets
• Seed capital-- $40MM used to be enough for investors from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, but now they want to see at least $100MM in your startup fund before recommending you. The average investor won't invest in a hedge fund unless it has at least $125MM in it. As he says, the days of starting a hedge fund with just a laptop are over.
• Risk/Reward criteria
• Market neutral

He says that contrary to popular belief, the credit crunch that started in August of last year was not due to hedge funds, but caught most of them in the muck with the rest of us. Now hedge funds are not finding many investors due to the "safety issue" of cautious investors, scared of the markets.

Test

Testing this go@blogger.com service.

Sent from my iPhone

August may be a good model for January [Update 2]

I thought about posting this yesterday. Jeremy Siegel's Yahoo Finance column, "Why Bernanke's Critics Have it All Wrong," posted August 29, 2007, lays out the financial meltdown that started in August. Then, Bernanke surprised the market with a 50 bps federal funds rate cut.

No one likes to call a bottom for fear of being wrong, but the .75% rate cut just announced by the Fed may be enough to float the markets up for another 6 months. I like what Boris Boehm of Germany's Nordinvest said, as quoted in the Times, "There’s an old saying in the market that banks lead us into recession and banks lead us out."

Love 'em when they're up, love 'em when they're down

Citigroup lost $9.83 billion in the fourth quarter.

Merrill lost $9.8 billion in the fourth quarter.

No wait, make that $16 billion.

Yet Merrill paid $15.9 billion in compensation and benefits to 64,200 employees.

Seems like they should have nixed the bonuses and they would have come out even. Glad I'm not a stockholder. Looks like the only industry not accountable to stockholders are the brokerage firms.

How trustworthy are Google Ads?

Doublingstocks.com promises untold riches for only $47.00. For less than the price of a coffee machine, you can get daily picks of penny stocks that promise to break trend and move up drastically, according to Marl, an automated "stock picking robot" that scans the market, analyses trends, and picks only the best stocks poised to breakout in a matter of days. Want more? You can licence Marl outright for $28,000.

Sound too good to be true? Well, apparently, it is. A group of people in a number of forums have investigated Marl and the claims of Doublingstocks.com, and found them to be, for lack of a better term, bunk. Mistlethrus, a commentor on skeltoac.com, bought the program and decompiled it to review the original source code to find that the program merely contains a database with two tables-- one with random stock symbols that scroll rapidly through the application with randomly applied messages such as "Good Buy!" and "Stock is Recounding," while the other table contains Marl's "pick of the day."

Many others chimed in as well with similar stories, including how it seems the stocks that Marl "picks" jump in value at the same time as the newsletter goes out, and quickly degrade after. Could the programmers of Marl be profiting from their advance knowledge that they will be sending this pick to hundreds or thousands of hungry penny stock traders? Apparently, Marl is also a good poker player. The same graphics and picture of the programmers (albeit, with different names) were featured on Pokerbobby.com, an automated online poker player, which is now defunct.

The good news is that the company they use to process payment, ClickBank, is not a fly-by-night. They honor refunds and stand behind the product, even if it does appear to be nothing more than a smokescreen to promote the stocks of companies that pay to advertise their shares.

The more disturbing aspect of this story is that Google seems to be, inadvertently, in on it. Allowing a questionable company like this one to advertise using Google Ad words dillutes their brand. If any fly-by-night scammer can pay a small fee to appear on every page on Google that mentions stocks or the stock market, or in a respected newspaper like the New York Times (The Stock Trading "Robot" was advertised on the Times business page today), how are consumers to trust other Google Ads?

Granted, most may not trust this ad, believing that what sounds too good to be true usually isn't, but what of the person who is taken in? A Google search does not point users to a fair assessment of this application. As an added twist, the creators of "Marl" have co-opted the "too good to be true" idiom in fake reviews that appear first in a search results list when you search for "doubling stocks scam" on Google. These links point back to the DoublingStocks.com site. By allowing unfiltered advertisements into its system, as well as no method for judging the trustworthiness of the companies behind them, Google is doing a disservice both to its customers and its brand.

PKD2

They've had an android Philip K. Dick since 2005. At first it just repeated what it was programmed to say, but after upgrades installed to make it learn, it started writing. At first the books were derivative rewrites of PKD originals, some better than others, the most inventive going off on new, modern tangents, incorporating the latest technologies in the paranoid fantasies of Dick's old works. But most were long-winded and in need of a good editor. Lawrence Sutin, Dick's formal biographer, edited a few, but soon grew tired when they proved to be as popular as Dick's original works when they were first published-- that is, not very. Pulp didn't fare well in the 50's and 60's when Dick was writing and was even less popular in the 00's, with competition from movies with computer-generated graphics, video games, and the internet. It was only after the android completed rewriting all of Dick's work that it started to become noticed, particularly with the sequel to Dick's last work, The Transmigration of Timothy Archer, itself the third book of a trilogy.

The sequel picks up 10 years after the previous book ends, and follows the lives of Angel Archer's fraternal twins, a boy and a girl, Philip and Mary, whose lives parallel what might have been the lives of Philip K. Dick and his unborn twin sister, had she lived. The book follows the twin's lives as they grow and separate. Philip becomes a failed novelist unable to publish more than one work. Mary is a successful public speaker, who speaks to a growing fan base of the links between science and religion. Mary ends up funding studies and experiments that attempt to bridge the gap between faith and fact, ultimately trying to build a telephone that talks to God. Philip, meanwhile, loses his apartment and ends up sleeping on the street, quietly resenting his sister as he sleeps under posters that advertise her latest speaking engagement. "How can she draw so many in just by talking," he wonders? As the story progresses, it becomes clear that Philip intends to kill Mary as he dreams of a life without a sister, where he is a successful author of novels blending science and religion. But before he can carry out his wish, in the final pages, as he confronts his sister in her office, the telephone to God rings and Mary encourages Philip to pick it up.

There is a lot more in the book. As in a typical Dick book, the lines are blurred between fantasy and reality. Philip's dreams of becoming a famous writer act as a pseudo-biography of Dick himself, complete with his yearning to know his sister who died at birth. Sometimes the real Philip can't separate himself from the dream Philip, and he wakes up depressed, believing he doesn't have a sister, then, seeing the poster of her above him, exists in a limbo state where he actually loves her and wants to get to know her, before he reverts back to anger and rage at her success.

There are religious facts and fantasies, including one that supposes that God talked to man regularly at one point in history. It is all very surprising and the book is greeted with wide success.