And here it is: Goldman, like cream, rises to the top

Goldman Sachs Rakes in Profit in Credit Crisis
While other firms tumble and fall, Goldman rises with profits from their hedges against toxic mortgage backed securities.

Meanwhile,

Fed fund futures show traders see a 90 percent chance the central bank will reduce its target a quarter-percentage point to 4.25 percent at its Dec. 11 meeting, 67 percent odds of another 25-basis-point cut in January, and a 43 percent likelihood the rate falls to 3.75 percent in March. Policy makers already lowered the target from 5.25 percent in August.

So, unless Bernanke feels like bucking the trend, expect to see further rate cuts, no matter what the other Fed governors say.

Be sure that your recycling really does help the environment

American Consumers Unwittingly Fuel Toxic Global Trade in Electronic Waste
You may think you're doing a good deed when you bring your old computer and electronics to an Earth Day drop off point, but if you don't check out the organization you are giving it to, you may just be adding more waste. Some companies ship the old equipment to other countries, where they are torn apart or burnt to get at the precious metals inside.

"It is being recycled, but it's being recycled in the most horrific way you can imagine," said Jim Puckett of the Basel Action Network, the Seattle-based environmental group that tipped off Hong Kong authorities. "We're preserving our own environment, but contaminating the rest of the world."

Many activists believe the answer lies in requiring electronics makers to take back and recycle their own products. Such laws would encourage manufacturers to make products that are easier to recycle and contain fewer dangerous chemicals, they say.

Fortunately, Apple, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and Sony take back their own products at no charge. It's not very easy to find out how, though. But here's the link to the Dell product recycling program.

Jim sounds like a character, here's what he said about the companies that aren't considering the environment in their recycling efforts: "Reuse is the new excuse. It's the new passport to export."

Simple, but not easy

A billionaires' guide to investing.

Hedge funds normally charge fees of 1.5 to 2 per cent of the asset value plus 20 per cent of the return. Their own fees make it hard for them to deliver the goods.

Mr Oldfield quotes the decline of the first hedge fund, A. W. Jones. In December 1968 it had $200 million under management: in September, 1970, that had fallen to $31 million. Later George Soros was to rebuild the reputation of hedge funds but there remain questions about whether they can find the exceptional talent they need and whether clients will pay their fees.

Don't believe the hype

OPEC Interested in Non-Dollar Currency
Do you believe the behind the scenes leaked news that OPEC members want to support the dollar, or the posturing by Iran's Ahmadinejad and Venezuela's Chavez, who have blatant political motives for creating a new world standard for pricing oil? I'll go with door number 1. Nevertheless, oil will price over $100 this week.

[Added 11/19/2007] Note that this was only the third time that a full OPEC meeting has occurred with all members and states since the committee was formed in 1960. What does that say?

Saudis don't want the US dollar to collapse

Saudi Arabia Won't Include U.S. Dollar in OPEC Talks
Good thing it was accidentally broadcast to journalists.

86% chance fed will cut rates in Dec: take the pain now or later?

Fed's Kroszner Says `Rough Patch' Won't Warrant Cuts
This is exactly what I was expecting in September, but instead of holding steady, the Fed cut rates by 50 bps. So now they are saying they want the economy to weather the rough waters of the coming months, and probably all of 2008. The 5-headed monster Fed is testing the waters by letting the Fed governors speak freely. First Poole says that only a calamity would force a change in Fed policy, then the 50 bps cut, then Miskin's the man to watch as his guidance has more closely followed what the Fed did, now Kroszner pops his head above water.

First the recession is imminent. Then there's a 30% chance. Now no one is sure.
One thing may be sure: earnings next year doesn't look too good. However, I'm investing in ROW stocks. That's stocks that sell to the Rest Of the World more than the US.

Hedge fund collapse? Why not banks and brokerages instead? Why not cities and towns?

Florida Holds $2.2 Billion of Debt Cut to Junk Status
This article goes over the how mortgage-backed securities are threatening some cities and towns that invested in them. But buried at the end is a little history on the collapse of banks and brokerages. Not exactly the hedge funds I was looking for, but tragic enough:

Potential losses by states are part of the subprime meltdown that shook up Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's biggest brokerage, in October. The firm reported a $2.24 billion third- quarter loss and an $8.4 billion write-down, leading to the firing of CEO Stan O'Neal.

Executives Step Down

The next week, subprime losses reported by Citigroup Inc., which at the time was the largest U.S. bank by market value, led to the departure of CEO Charles Prince.

In June, two bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds holding subprime debt reported losses of $1.5 billion. Bear Stearns fired Warren Spector, the firm's co-president for fixed income and asset management and the bank's stock lost 30 percent of its value in the following two months.

Michael Tsarion selling conspiracy

Michael Tsarion speaks on 2012 - The Future of Mankind at the Granada Forum in LA on Aug 3, 2006. This video is 2 hr 24 min 48 sec. There is a link to www.originsandoracles.com.

He mentions the conspiratorial movement/alternative history. While watching, I began to develop some rules about how to sell a conspiracy theory.

• Quote from greats to make your points.
• "Henry Ford said 'people deserve the government they get.'"
• "Einstein said that when the bees go, the humans have 2 years left." (Ian Crossland)
• MC Escher in Powerpoint slides.
• Break down words and make them fit your agenda.
• government = from the latin - to control minds
• sanity from the same root as sanitize
• Use other conspiratorial works as sources, even if they are fictional:
• They Live -- a conspiratorial sci-fi movie.
• Use other conspiratorial theories to bolster your own.

He tells a good story, though.

Timewave Zero

I've been exposed to Terrence McKenna's ideas of the novelty theory of time-- time goes through peaks and troughs that correspond to novel ideas and traditional ideas in history-- and found myself looking through his ideas once again, inspired by a youtube video about a talk he gave on "The World and it's double".

He talks about history and novelty here:

I did a Google search for terrence mckenna timewave zero and came up with this site, which says that the singularity will be "a suprahistorical order in which our ordinary conceptions of our world will be radically transformed." This caught my eye, but what I really want to know is what is going to happen after this event. What is the conception of the world that we will inherit?
Perhaps it will be a world that the ancients understood; that inspired the Mayans to create their long count calender; that got the pyramids built; in which religions and great ideas were caught, molded, and expressed. Perhaps it is the time the tower of Babel was built, and God struck it down, made men speak in tongues, and made us forget time and history. I see the end of history as just another cycle, to be replaced again at some point with what we have now-- novelty and tradition. Maybe it will last 1000 years; the 1000 years of peace that the Bible mentions as a precursor to Christ's return.
Terrence McKenna died in 2000 of brain cancer.

Bernanke: Fed will respond "as needed"

Bloomberg report.

October Employment Numbers

Weird can't tell which is correct. I thought this quote was from an article written today, however, I found it again after clicking away from it and it says it was written at 5:55pm on November 1. That would be right as the crude oil price numbers sound correct:

With the market growing pessimistic about the economy, the Labor Department's report on October jobs creation, scheduled to be released Friday morning, will be taking on even more importance than it usually has. The data is expected to show unemployment remained steady in October, with payroll growth of 85,000 new jobs, compared with 110,000 in September.

But the title of the article is the Dow drops 360. And the Dow dropped 360 today:
Stocks Plunge With Dollar; Dow Down 360
Are we going through some sort of time warp?
Ok, on second glance, the Nov 1st article says:

The Dow fell 362.14, or 2.60 percent, to 13,567.87.

And today's article says:

The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 360 points -- just about matching its plunge of last Thursday.

That makes more sense. It goes on to say:

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 360.92, or 2.64 percent, to 13,300.02.

It's a slow bleed...

Fed speaks II

Lacker says the mortgage crisis isn't over yet. I say just wait until next year's rate cuts. Dissention in the ranks by non-voting members. If it gets much worse you may see more regulation in the mortgage market.
Warsh is waiting for more information.
Poole says we may need more cuts, which worries me, because he was against this before the first one.
Instead of Greenspan, now we have a five-headed monster to deal with when attempting to decode future moves.

Miskin Speaks; Fed outook is as volatile as the markets

Miskin spoke to the House Small Business Committee. Bloomberg report. Reuters. Looks like he's taking back what he said about taking back the Halloween rate cut. "Wait and see" seems to be the tone of this cautious Fed. Later today we'll hear from Warsh, Lockhart, and Poole, then Bernanke tomorrow.