Wednesday, November 7, 2007

October Employment Numbers

Weird can't tell which is correct. I thought this quote was from an article written today, however, I found it again after clicking away from it and it says it was written at 5:55pm on November 1. That would be right as the crude oil price numbers sound correct:
With the market growing pessimistic about the economy, the Labor Department's report on October jobs creation, scheduled to be released Friday morning, will be taking on even more importance than it usually has. The data is expected to show unemployment remained steady in October, with payroll growth of 85,000 new jobs, compared with 110,000 in September.
But the title of the article is the Dow drops 360. And the Dow dropped 360 today:
Stocks Plunge With Dollar; Dow Down 360
Are we going through some sort of time warp?
Ok, on second glance, the Nov 1st article says:
The Dow fell 362.14, or 2.60 percent, to 13,567.87.
And today's article says:
The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 360 points -- just about matching its plunge of last Thursday.
That makes more sense. It goes on to say:
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 360.92, or 2.64 percent, to 13,300.02.
It's a slow bleed...

Fed speaks II


Lacker says the mortgage crisis isn't over yet. I say just wait until next year's rate cuts. Dissention in the ranks by non-voting members. If it gets much worse you may see more regulation in the mortgage market.
Warsh is waiting for more information.
Poole says we may need more cuts, which worries me, because he was against this before the first one.
Instead of Greenspan, now we have a five-headed monster to deal with when attempting to decode future moves.

Miskin Speaks; Fed outook is as volatile as the markets

Miskin spoke to the House Small Business Committee. Bloomberg report. Reuters. Looks like he's taking back what he said about taking back the Halloween rate cut. "Wait and see" seems to be the tone of this cautious Fed. Later today we'll hear from Warsh, Lockhart, and Poole, then Bernanke tomorrow.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

98% bet that Fed will lower fed funds rate 25bps tomorrow

Quotes From Fed Officials on Economy

Hopefully they will surprise again with a 50 bps cut. The bursting of the housing and credit bubbles, compounded with China's "irrational exuberance," according to Greenspan, will hopefully inspire the Fed to be more aggressive, but the comments above suggest otherwise. If there is no cut, the market will fall. The 25 bps cut is already priced in. People may take profits if this happens. If it's a 50 bps cut, the market will rally.