Rabbit Holes

On the net, there's always a new subculture to explore. I see them as rabbit holes, and I'm amazed to find new ones every day. Here's a list for today:

• Someone forwarded me a link for living frugally, which lead me a bunch of different places, like
• NetworthIQ, a site where you can track your networth on and share it with others.
  Through their tagging search feature, I found this guy,
  
• Buster McLeod, who
  
• wrote a book about an 89 year old city planner who didn't want his life to end without meaning.
  
• He has a morale-o-meter that you can use to track your morale over the course of time.
• Another link from the frugal site took me to a story about Japanese women who play the currency markets with their savings.
• Which was a blog site commenting on this NY Times story.
  
  

Inflation level, but food & energy up

From Bloomberg TV:
Since Feb/Mar 2007, when Bernanke said we should watch inflation, prices have gone up:
24% oil
10% gold
75% wheat
Yes, they are not in core consumer price index, but still, in march 2007, the CPI was .1. The last reading was .2.
If inflation is the main risk to the economy, and the cpi has gone up as well as oil and wheat, which are not in the cpi, and oil affects many parts of the economy, how can we not be experiencing inflation?

Well, the fed cut rates

Fed Cuts Key Interest Rates by a Half Point - Sept 18, 2007 - NY Times.
Federal Reserve Press Release September 18,2007

Fed's surprise move: Flip the discount and raise the fed funds rate?

I'm researching the viability of the Fed flipping rates & raising the fed funds rate today. Why would they do this? To prevent against inflation while still offering liquidity to banks. Here's the Google Search.
And some results:
Fed holds rates steady - June 28, 2000 - CNN Money
Fed cuts discount rate, stands ready to do more - The mess that greenspan made
Fed Funds Target vs. Effective Funds Rate - Calculated Risk
The T-Bill Message for Bush & Bernanke - August 16, 2007 - Kudlow's Money Politic$
Some Wall Street Journal definitions:
How does the fed keep rates near its target? A primer - August 16, 2007 - WSJ
Explaining the Discount Window - August 17, 2007 - WSJ
And here's a result which may give a clue about what happens when the discount window is lower than the fed funds rate:
Economists React: 'Lifting the Wizard's Curtain' - August 17, 2007 - WSJ

"Prior to 2003, when the discount rate was lower than the funds rate, cutting the discount rate was the most powerful tool in the monetary policy toolbelt. Indeed, prior to 1994, when the Fed began announcing changes in the funds rate target, a discount rate move was the ONLY move that was explicitly announced. Many market participants will think of the discount rate cut in those terms, which is not the correct way to consider it. Instead, this should be thought of as another (indeed, probably the last) intermediate step short of an ease. –Stephen Stanley, RBS Greenwich Capital"

Bernanke's the new sheriff in town-- when he lowered the discount rate after Bill Poole said only a catastrophe would cause the Fed to change monetary policy earlier than their September meeting-- his actions showed his new tactics. Where Greenspan would have lowered the fed funds rate-- the famous Greenspan put, Bernanke may be reverting to the past, when the discount rate was more important.
Will Bernanke revert to considering the discount rate the most important rate? This is a new boss-- the Greenspan era is over-- no more Greenspan put, the book is out and he's coasting. Bernanke is an academic. He may not be in it for the short term like Greenspan. He may not want to be popular and enjoy the public eye. He's less impressed with his public image than his predecessor. It's not all about ego, but-- Greenspan enjoyed the limelight. He liked speaking in riddles and being the most powerful man on the planet. He didn't follow the advice of the group-- sometimes he lowered rates even if the others on the board didn't want to. He followed the Federal Express stock price to feel the pulse of the economy. He made instinctual decisions and most of the time he was right. Bernanke is an academic-- he listens to the group, he uses models. Most likely, he will not follow the historical pattern and make his mark today.
So, with 25 minutes to go-- will Bernanke raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 5.5% and lower the discount rate 50 points to 5.25%?

The future

Remember when there was only one internet?
Now everyone knows what everyone else is doing all the time.
Now that there is a way that computers can automatically e-mail you about where people are, where they are going, and when they have gotten there.
For example, if you arrange to meet someone at a certain time-- for example, you e-mail them "hey, let's meet at 6 for dinner at Y bar," your computer will automatically put that into a central calendar that you can choose for anyone to access and it can link to a map so all your friends know where you are and when. It just makes communication richer so you don't have to talk about logistical things-- they are built into the system, like concrete in the roads.

So now you have a phone that goes everywhere with you and can double as a half-decent camera and radio/music machine. And it also has your calendar and access to the internet, and you have a social networking site that gets updated with the latest information about you, where all of your friends, family, co-workers, and acquaintences are on, and you can set it up so that the GPS in your phone updates your location live on the web, and record a video that instantly goes live if you want. And you can communicate with everyone at once if you want. So basically, everyone is a star to someone, or some group of people. You can produce a television show while you are walking down the street, and interview other people who are walking down it with you, and all the technology and know-how to do this is built right into your phone, the thing you carry all around with you anyway.

The Fed Will Not Lower Rates

The Economic Outlook--speech by Jeffrey Lacker of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond to the Charlotte Risk Management Association in Charlotte, North Carolina on Aug. 21, 2007 at 12:30pm.
Basically, he said don't look for the fed to cut the federal funds rate soon.
However, that may be just as believable as William Poole's comments that only a "calamity" would justify an interest rate cut, the day before the Fed cut the discount rate.

Countrywide Up on Rumor, Down on News?

Thrifts Hit by Housing Market Problems
The good news obscured by the headline:

Mortgage defaults are slamming the savings and loan industry, although thrifts should be able to weather the housing market downturn, federal regulators said Tuesday.

CFC is a thrift.
US regulator says watching Countrywide very closely

The Office of Thrift Supervision is very closely monitoring events at Countrywide Financial Corp and has had a consistent onsite examination presence at the California company since it converted to a thrift charter in March 2007, an OTS spokesman said on Monday.

Stocks to Watch: Capital One, Countrywide, KKR, Target, Viacom

Countrywide Financial's (CFC) stock fell 7.6% despite the company's attempts to reassure depositors that their funds were safe at the company's Countrywide Bank savings bank unit

My opinion? Countrywide will fall when Buffet says he's not buying.