Tuesday, June 5, 2001

Do Analysts Eat Donuts?


Do analysts like to be negative about a good thing? I remember back in '94 when technology stocks were on the rise. I was buying and selling Iomega and Netscape almost daily. Stocks, which previously never went up more than a point or two a day, were suddenly shooting skyward 5-10 points a day. This overenthusiasm spread in the nineties until some stocks were rising 30-40 points a day. Now that small investors have taken Peter Lynch's advice to buy companies they know, analysts are eager to bring down Krispy Kreme from its sugar high(TheStreet.com: The Hole in the Krispy Kreme Craze).

The difference with KKR is that management is taking expansion slow enough that they're not going to become another Boston Market (Boston Market was a successful Massachussetts gourmet fast food restaurant that sold roasted chicken and sides. The food was good, and fast, but unfortunately, the stores expanded too quickly and the chain eventually went bankrupt and had to scale back.).

Krispy Kreme donuts have been popular since the store started selling them in 1937. This is not a recent fad that will blow out like an overstuffed jelly donut. Krispy Kreme will become the Starbucks of the '00s. I know I'll be eating at least one a day once they open up a store in my area.

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